Jack’s Take: Injuries Cloud Indiana’s Big Ten Tournament Title Hopes, NCAA Seeding
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Senior day is always bittersweet, even more so for Indiana on Sunday despite a 71-54 win over Maryland.
That’s because Indiana’s starting and backup centers, Mackenzie Holmes and Lilly Meister, left the game with injuries. For Holmes, it was an all too familiar knee injury, similar to the one she dealt with down the stretch of last season where her kneecap shifts in and out of place, coach Teri Moren said. Holmes left the game late in the third quarter, and an ankle injury knocked Meister out of the game in the fourth.
Neither returned to the game, and neither practiced Tuesday or Wednesday. Moren called both players day-to-day on Wednesday and said she doesn’t know if either will be available for Indiana’s first Big Ten Tournament game on Friday in Minneapolis against the winner of the Michigan-Minnesota game Thursday night.
These injuries put Indiana in a predicament. The Hoosiers were ranked No. 14 overall and a No. 4 seed in the latest NCAA Tournament top-16 reveal on Feb. 29. That’s especially notable because the top four seeds in the women’s NCAA Tournament host the Round of 64 and Round of 32 on campus. Playing in the comfort of Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall would presumably give the Hoosiers an advantage, though they were upset as a No. 1 seed by No. 9 seed Miami at home last season.
Sunday’s win over Maryland (17-12, 9-9) likely doesn’t have much effect on Indiana’s seeding, other than avoiding a bad loss, but an early loss in the Big Ten Tournament to No. 6 seed Michigan or No. 11 seed Minnesota on Friday could cause the NCAA Tournament committee to look at the Hoosiers differently, especially with the unknown injury status of Holmes and Meister.
Moren is focusing her team on controlling what they can control in the Big Ten Tournament, but she’s also aware of the big picture. With the help of Indiana’s medical team, Moren said they’re going to do whatever they can to help Holmes and Meister play, with the possibility of managing their minutes with potential games on back-to-back nights.
But if it's not safe for them to play because of the risk of further injury, the Hoosiers will roll with what they have.
“There is a bigger picture,” Moren said. “I’m thinking always about the NCAA Tournament, and I know this is part of it, the Big Ten Tournament. I wish we had more time right now in between to rest, but we don’t and we’ll do what we have to do.”
“I think we feel pretty good that we’re [in the NCAA Tournament], it’s just about trying to protect home court advantage for us,” Moren said. “We want to host, so that’s the only thing on our mind, doing our job. I don’t know what ramifications will happen, whatever happens in the Big Ten Tournament, lose or win. I think if we win, obviously that’s pretty easy, but we just want to host. I do think our record speaks for itself, and what we’ve been able to accomplish speaks for itself, so I think we’re in a really good position.”
Indiana is ranked No. 12 in the NET, a rankings system the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to help build the field of 68. It’s not the only factor, of course, as Indiana came in at No. 14 in the latest top-16 reveal. A 86-69 win over Iowa, a projected No. 2 seed, on Feb. 22 was crucial in keeping the Hoosiers in contention for a host seed, but they’re not safe just yet.
ESPN’s Charlie Creme noted in his latest bracketology how several injuries could impact NCAA Tournament seeding. In addition to Holmes, Virginia Tech's Elizabeth Kitley and Iowa's Molly Davis left their final regular-season games with knee injuries.
“If any of them can't play in the postseason, there will be ramifications,” Creme wrote. “Teams are selected for the field based on their entire résumé, so losing a star or key contributor doesn't damage any teams' NCAA tournament hopes. But injuries can impact seeding if those players aren't available for NCAA tourney games. The Hokies' chances for a No. 1 seed disappeared Sunday with a loss to Virginia, but a top-16 finish also could evaporate if Kitley is out. The same for Indiana and Holmes.”
An Indiana spokesperson noted during Wednesday’s news conference that Indiana is asked on a weekly basis if they have anything to report, and the Big Ten communicates that to the NCAA Tournament committee, whether that be injuries, travel issues, etc. So in the case that Holmes or Meister is unable to play in the Big Ten Tournament but will be healthy by the time the NCAA Tournament begins, Indiana could communicate that to the committee.
Indiana shouldn’t play Holmes or Meister if there is a high risk of re-injury or if they’re not close to 100%. But playing them limited minutes on Friday with the goal of ensuring a victory and showing the committee they’ll be healthy come the NCAA Tournament could be smart. And once a costly Friday loss is avoided, Indiana could rest them for the remainder of the conference tournament, figuring they’ve done enough to secure a top-four seed.
Especially notable on the women’s side, teams have more than a week off between the conference and NCAA Tournament. The Big Ten Tournament championship is scheduled for March 10, but Selection Sunday is not until March 17 and Indiana wouldn’t play its Round of 64 game until either March 22 or 23. It’s unknown how long Holmes and Meister will be out, but that extended time off could be crucial to their return, and to Indiana’s hopes of securing a host seed.
In the event that either can’t play in the Big Ten Tournament, Moren said Indiana will play sophomore Yarden Garzon at the five. Garzon, listed at 6-foot-3, identical to Holmes and Meister, tends to play more frequently on the perimeter – she’s second on the team with 56 3-pointers made – but her size and versatility allows her to play various positions. Garzon logged minutes at the five last season when Holmes missed time with injury, and Moren feels confident in this contingency plan, though she still hopes to have Holmes’ 20.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game in the lineup.
“It’s fun to have a player like Yarden that you can move around because of her size, because of her IQ, because of her passing ability,” Moren said. “She has the potential to create some matchup problems for other fives that may have to guard her.”
Most important for Indiana is taking care of business on Friday night, regardless of opponent. A loss could put the Hoosiers out of host-seed contention, but a win would allow them to exhale a bit, as a semifinal loss to Iowa would not hurt their resume. In that case, Indiana should be in line to host tournament games, unless the NCAA Tournament committee feels Holmes’ injury is severe enough to put her playing status at risk. Other teams behind Indiana would also need to make a run in their conference tournaments to jump the Hoosiers.
Holmes played a huge role in Indiana achieving a 24-4 overall record and a 15-3 mark in Big Ten play, but she didn’t do it alone. Sara Scalia was a first-team All-Big Ten selection, while Garzon, Sydney Parrish and Chloe Moore-McNeil each average double-digit points. Moren hopes Indiana can be at full strength for its NCAA Tournament run, but for now, the message is one she hopes instills confidence in her team.
“Regardless of the injuries right now that we’re facing,” Moren said. “That we still have enough to get the job done.”
Related stories on Indiana women's basketball
- HOLMES, SCALIA 1ST TEAM ALL-BIG TEN: Mackenzie Holmes was unanimously chosen by the Big Ten coaches and media for the All-Big Ten First Team. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA-MARYLAND GAME STORY: Arielle Wisne performed the National Anthem, and all three seniors had postgame tribute videos. CLICK HERE
- WHAT TERI MOREN SAID AFTER 71-54 WIN OVER MARYLAND: Here's the full transcript and video of Teri Moren's press conference following Indiana's win over Maryland on Senior Day. CLICK HERE
