My Two Cents: Indiana Forced to Deal With Freshmen Struggles, Purdue Not So Much
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Perception is everything in basketball. Whether it's over one game, one week or one season, we evaluate with our eyes and pontificate with our mouths. Some of us — but not all of you — even use the brain as a filter first.
Since the summer, there's been this great college basketball debate across the Hoosier heartland. from the steel mills to the riverboats, and across most every Hoosier state watering hole and burger joint. This was the year, many of us thought, that Indiana was the state's best college basketball team.
Purdue has carried that mantel for the past several years. Matt Painter vs. Archie Miller was a complete mismatch. During Miller's four years of running Indiana's program into the ground, he went 0-7 against Purdue, which is far worse that never making the NCAA Tournament.
That's really saying something, isn't it?
The first thing Mike Woodson did in the IU-Purdue rivalry was BEAT THEM last January in Bloomington, snapping a nine-game losing streak in the rivalry, the longest since the 1930s, when the great John Wooden was a player at Purdue. Miller was the only IU coach in the past century who never won a game against Purdue.
This year, though, it looked the tide was turning. Trayce Jackson-Davis and, to a lesser extent, Race Thompson both returned and Indiana added a solid freshman class led by Jalen Hood-Schifino and Malik Reneau, teammates and national champions at Montverde Academy. C.J. Gunn and Kaleb Banks were prime targets as well in Indiana's No. 10-ranked class.
Purdue's freshman class ranked No. 30, with guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, and forward Camden Heide.
Purdue lost their entire backcourt from the 2021-22 team that went 29-8, was No. 1 in the country at one point but didn't win a Big Ten regular season or tournament title, and because the first school EVER to lose to a No. 15 seed in the second week of the NCAA Tournament.
Jaden Ivey and Sasha Stefanovic were gone, as were point guards Eric Hunter Jr and Isiah Thompson, guys who could have stayed at Purdue, but transferred out anyway to Butler and Florida Gulf Coast, respectively.
Purdue was going to be forced to start two freshman guards this season, which is usually a recipe for disaster.
I wasn't alone in the fall when I predicted that Indiana would win the Big Ten, because they were a consensus favorite. A lot of people didn't even have Purdue in their top five — or even top seven — but I never went that far. I had heard a lot — mostly from Purdue guard Ethan Morton — about how much better Zach Edey was with his footwork and shooting touch. I knew he was going to be a handful for everyone because no one can match up with 7-foot-4. That's SEVEN inches taller than Indiana star Trayce Jackson-Davis
I picked Purdue fourth in the league in my preseason poll, behind Indiana, Illinois and Michigan State. I did that mostly because I wasn't sure I could trust those freshman guards to hold up.
But they have — in a big way. They've been great all year and even though Edey is the runaway national player of the year, Purdue isn't 22-1 without the freshman, Smith and Loyer.
They complete this Purdue roster, which now has no weaknesses.
''Best team in the country, best player in the country, best coach in the country,'' Penn State's Micah Shrewsberry said Wednesday night after the Boilermakers crushed his Nittany Lions team 80-60 at Mackey Arena. That's the same Penn State team that beat Indiana 85-66 in January.
What's amazing is how consistent these two Indiana-bred freshman been. Oh sure, some shooting nights have been better than others, but they've both made a lot of big plays and you know what you get every night. They've been that good.
And that's really been the difference between these two teams so far. Hood-Schifino has been great at times, but he's also had a few clunkers too, like Tuesday night's 1-for-14 performance at Maryland. Sure, he scored 20 first-half points against Ohio State last weekend, but in his other seven most recent halves, he's scored a total of just 15.
I'll tell you this much. If trades were allowed in basketball, there's no way that I would trade Jalen Hood-Schifino for Braden Smith, and that's no knock on Smith, who's been amazingly steady throughout his freshman year. Hood-Schifino has hit that freshman wall lately, and Indiana really needs him in a big way on Saturday.
For Indiana to have a chance in the 4 p.m. ET game on Saturday, Hood-Schifino and Trey Galloway, have to win the guard battle. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer can't be allowed to go off shooting, and every post pass they make has to be severely contested.
As we've talked about all week, Edey and Jackson-Davis have been two of the best players in the country, and I fully expect both of them to play well and have big games on Saturday. Here's my biggest wish: Let's hope they stay out of foul trouble so we can actually see them on the court. Jackson-Davis only played 11 minutes in Bloomington last year. I don't want to see that happen again.
Indiana needs the best out of its freshmen to win this game. I'm looking for a big game from Hood-Schifino, and Reneau needs to contribute inside while also staying out of foul trouble himself. He fouled out Tuesday at Maryland in less than 13 minutes.
Smith and Loyer, two Indiana kids from Westfield and Fort Wayne, have been to Assembly Hall before, but never out at center court with 17,000 angry Indiana fans screaming at them.
Will the moment be too big for them? They're freshman, but they haven't acted like freshmen all year. They've already won Big Ten road games at Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan State, Minnesota and Michigan, a perfect 5-0.
That doesn't happen with two freshmen guards.
Purdue is also 3-0 as underdogs this season, so that doesn't frighten these guys off either. They've beaten Duke, Gonzaga and Ohio State as 'dogs, and the line on Saturday, which been bounced around since it was released Friday night, favors Indiana slightly now.
Purdue's kids won't care. Boilermakers fans joked during the Hoosiers' nine-game losing streak in the rivalry that they hadn't won in more than 2,000 days.
Well, it's actually been 749 days since Purdue has won in Assembly Hall, not since Jan. 14, 2021.
I'm not chickening out on a prediction here today, mostly because I don't have a good feel for the outcome. It's a pick'em game for sure in my book. The atmosphere is going to be amazing inside Assembly Hall, where the Hoosiers have been playing great lately, winning three straight by double digits.
To me, the difference is this. Purdue is the better team, mostly because they are healthy. Indiana is not, still really missing senior point guard Xavier Johnson. But there is also the aura of Assembly Hall, and the good feels it brings to Indiana's players. Is it enough to carry them to a win?
Remember a few weeks ago when Trey Galloway and Tamar Bates each scored 17 points in the win over Michigan State? Something like that has to happen again, or close. Hood-Schifino needs a big game, too.
Can all of that happen? It might, which is the frustrating part. Galloway has been steady, but Bates has been wildly inconsistent. Outside of Michigan State, he's scored a grand total of nine points in the other five games.
To me, Purdue has been playing at a higher level, and with more consistency, especially from its younger players. Indiana could win, but the level of inconsistency lately — even in that ugly win at last-place Minnesota — is concerning. What makes the most sense? Purdue 81, Indiana 78,
But I have little faith in that prediction. It won't surprise me if the Hoosiers win by 10 either. I just can't wait to be there. It's going to be a crazy fun afternoon.
