Big 12 Tournament Loss Has Major Implications for Cyclones

Where do the Iowa State Cyclones stand for the NCAA tournament after losing in the Big 12 tournament?

Iowa State Cyclones' women's basketball head coach Bill Fennelly calls a play against Arizona State during the fourth quarter in the Big-12 women’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 18, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones women's basketball team earned the No. 7 seed in the 2026 Big 12 Tournament after going 22-8 during the regular season and 10-8 during conference play.

That performance was good enough to earn them a bye into the second round, getting the winner of the game between the No. 10 Arizona State Sun Devils and No. 15 Arizona Wildcats.

It was the Sun Devils who came away with a 54-51 victory, keeping their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. They improved even more when they secured an upset victory over the Cyclones, 77-68, earning their first Quad 1 victory of the campaign.

Arizona State is now squarely in the mix for an at-large bid into the 2026 NCAA Women’s Tournament. How do things look for Iowa State?

Iowa State barely holding onto bye for NCAA tournament

Iowa State Cyclones' center Audi Crooks (55) drives to the basket around Arizona State Sun Devils center Martina Fantini (7) during the second quarter in the Big-12 women’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 18, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Right now, Bill Fennelly’s squad is still projected to make the field, as one of the last four teams to earn a bye, according to Charlie Creme of ESPN. They are currently a No. 9 seed in Region 1, being held in Fort Worth.

Their Round of 64 game is projected to be against the No. 8 seed Syracuse Orange. Should the Cyclones win that game, the winner of the matchup between the No. 1 seed UConn Huskies and No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson Knights would face Iowa State.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out in the coming days. Based on the projections, Iowa State should be in the field of 68, but they have done themselves no favors by losing their first game of the Big 12 tournament.

If any bid stealers go on runs in their respective tournaments, the Cyclones could easily find themselves as one of the last four teams in the field and in the play-in games. It would take a lot of upsets for them to miss the tournament entirely, but it is conceivable that they would drop into the last four in.

Final: Arizona State 77, Iowa State 68.

— Cyclone Basketball (@CycloneWBB) March 6, 2026

For example, if the Sun Devils pick up a victory over the No. 10-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, they would push up the rankings. They are currently team No. 70 in Creme’s bracketology prediction.

If they run the table and win the tournament, an argument can be made that they should jump Iowa State.

The Cyclones certainly wish they could have a redo on the start of their game against Arizona State. At the blink of an eye, Iowa State trailed 17-2 out of the gate in large part to turnover woes, and was unable to recover.

Audi Crooks scored a team-high 21 points with seven rebounds in the loss. Addy Brown had a double-double with 13 points and 12 rebounds. Jada Williams and Kenzie Hare also scored in double figures with 11 and 12 points, respectively.