Iowa State Basketball Fans Will Love This Sweet 16 Bold Prediction

This Sweet 16 bold prediction will elate Iowa State Cyclones fans.

Mar 22, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) celebrates after making a play during the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones are in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament for the third time in five years under head coach T.J. Otzelberger.

They will be looking to advance beyond the Regional Semifinal into the Elite Eight for the first time. Standing in their way this time around is the Tennessee Volunteers, the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region.

The SEC at-large squad presents some challenges to the Cyclones, mainly on the interior. They are an incredible rebounding team and possess a ton of size, which will be a major obstacle for Iowa State to overcome, especially if Joshua Jefferson cannot suit up.

Listed as questionable, he will be a game-time decision. But, even if he isn’t able to suit up, Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf of ESPN believe that the Cyclones will have enough to defeat the Volunteers and advance to the Regional Final.

Iowa State predicted to beat Tennessee in Sweet 16

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger addresses the media after a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Tennessee State Tigers at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

They have made predictions for every Sweet 16 game and believe Iowa State will come away victorious. Borzello has predicted a 67-65 victory for the Cyclones, while Medcalf believes they will handle business a little easier, winning 74-68.

“With or without Jefferson, Iowa State will have the same blueprint against Tennessee: Move the ball to find the best shot on offense, force turnovers with defensive pressure and score on fast breaks,” Medcalf wrote.

Head coach T.J. Otzelberger and his staff have strong principles that their game plans are built upon, and the players have fully bought in. Despite some early trouble against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Round of 32, trailing by 12 points early on, their confidence never wavered.

Iowa State relied on its defense to keep it afloat until the offense came around. Once the offense got on track, an avalanche occurred. The Cyclones forced the Wildcats into 20 turnovers, taking full control of the game.

Cyclones have tried and true formula to win even without Jefferson

Mar 26, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) warms up during a practice session ahead of the midwest regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at United Center. | David Banks-Imagn Images

They will look to replicate that performance against a Tennessee squad that is susceptible to turnovers. The Volunteers have a negative turnover ratio, with two of their stars, Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament, turning the ball over five times against the Virginia Cavaliers.

If Iowa State can turn up the pressure on those two and create miscues, they will be in a great position to offset their disadvantages and come away victorious. Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen turned the ball over eight times, so the Cyclones defensive pressure is for real.

Whoever wins this matchup will face the winner of the game between the Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide, with a spot in the Final Four on the line.