Iowa State Basketball’s Floor Is Still a Solid Season

The Iowa State Cyclones men’s basketball team has turned into one of the most consistently productive programs in the country.

Since T.J. Otzelberger took over as head coach from Steve Prohm, the team has qualified for the NCAA tournament five out of five times. Accomplishing that feat in Year 1 after taking over a squad that went 2-22 is an impressive feat.

If Otzelberger wants to make that six years in a row, he will have his work cut out for him. The team is going to be without starting point guard Killyan Toure for about half the season after he suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery.

Without Toure healthy, the team’s ceiling has been impacted greatly. It also means their floor is worse, but given the stability that Otzelberger has brought the program, even their floor would be considered a strong campaign.

Iowa State's floor drops with Killyan Toure injury

Iowa State’s Killyan Toure talks to media during the men’s basketball media availability. — Iowa State’s Killyan Toure talks to media during the men’s basketball media availability at the university’s Sukup Basketball complex on July 28, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Over at ESPN, Myron Medcalf shared some early projections for how the Big 12 could shake out this season. They landed at No. 5 in the projection, with a ceiling of No. 3 and a floor of No. 7.

The only teams ahead of them are the Arizona Wildcats, Kansas Jayhawks, Texas Tech Red Raiders and Houston Cougars. That floor for Iowa State includes winning 20 games and still making the NCAA tournament, but losing in the Round of 64.

That is something that has occurred only once under Otzelberger’s watch. The last time the Cyclones failed to win at least one NCAA tournament game was in 2023. They were a No. 6 seed and lost to the No. 11 seed Pittsburgh Panthers in ugly fashion, 59-41.

Even when they were an 11 seed in 2022, Iowa State advanced to the Sweet 16. As long as Otzelberger is at the helm, this team should never be counted out in its ability to make a run during the season.

Cyclones have a lot of production to replace on the hardwood

Iowa State's Tamin Lipsey (3) greets Joshua Jefferson (5) and Milan Momcilovic. — Iowa State's Tamin Lipsey (3) greets Joshua Jefferson (5) and Milan Momcilovic (22) after a three-point play during a Jan. 2, 2026, game against West Virginia at Hilton Coliseum in Ames. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

However, it is certainly tougher to envision how that run will materialize with Toure out. He was expected to play a massive role with the team, helping replace all the star power and production that was lost with Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcilovic and Nate Heise all departing.

The pressure will be on sophomore guard Jamarion Batemon, senior center Blake Buchanan and sophomore center Dominykas Pleta to help set the tone as the returning rotation players who are healthy right now.

The player who will likely be tasked with replacing Toure is Jaquan Johnson, a transfer from the Bradley Braves. He was viewed as a Lipsey replacement and has the tools to offer the same kind of impact as the reigning Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year, who also averaged 16.9 points per game.

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