Iowa State Basketball vs. Kentucky NCAA Tournament Bold Predictions

The Iowa State Cyclones are facing off with a Blue Blood, the Kentucky Wildcats, the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament.

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Killyan Toure (27) reacts to a television camera with guard Cade Kelderman (13) after a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament against the Tennessee State Tigers at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones were able to win their first game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, blowing out the Tennessee State Tigers, 108-74.

It was an excellent all-around performance for the Cyclones, but it wasn’t all positive. Star forward Joshua Jefferson exited with an ankle injury less than three minutes into the contest and was seen in a walking boot on the bench.

His loss is a significant one, especially as the competition intensifies with each passing round. In the Round of 32, they are now set to face off with the Kentucky Wildcats, who won a thriller over the Santa Clara Broncos in their first game.

What can be expected against their SEC foes? Here are four bold predictions against Kentucky.

Otega Oweh Big Game

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) shoots a three point shot against Santa Clara Broncos forward Elijah Mahi (8) during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Iowa State has a great defensive game plan, but if there is one shortcoming on that end of the court, it is their lack of stoppers on the wing. That is bad news going up against someone with the offensive arsenal of Otega Oweh.

The senior guard has been filling up the bucket recently, scoring 35 points against Santa Clara, including the game-tying half-court buzzer beater to send the game into overtime. The Cyclones will throw plenty of players at him, but it will be a struggle.

Oweh is going to score 20+ points for the 20th time this season to help keep the Wildcats in the game.

Dominick Nelson Triumphant Return to Rotation

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Dominick Nelson (11) brings the ball upcourt against the Tennessee State Tigers during the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

With Jefferson going down, head coach T.J. Otzelberger has to adjust his rotation. The change against Tennessee State was turning to Dominick Nelson.

Out of the rotation for the last few months, he received 19 minutes of action, being thrown right back into the mix. Now that he knows he will be playing, he will respond with another solid game.

The Cyclones are going to need his aggressive, downhill style of play to help compensate for the loss of Jefferson’s scoring punch. Nelson will score at least 10 points, attempting at least six free throws.

Tamin Lipsey Steps Up

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) dribbles the ball against Tennessee State Tigers guard Dante Harris (10) during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Losing a player of Jefferson’s caliber is never an easy thing for a team to overcome. However, Iowa State is fortunate enough to have another experienced player to lean on for leadership on the court.

Tamin Lipsey is going to have to carry a little more responsibility without his senior running mate in the lineup, and he will respond as expected. Not wanting his Cyclones career to end just yet, he will get the job done on both ends.

The senior point guard will score 17 points with eight assists and four steals, setting the tone for his squad.

Iowa State Wins Thriller

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger looks on against the Tennessee State Tigers during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

Playing without a star is never an easy task, but Iowa State is a talented squad with players capable of stepping into more prominent roles and producing at a high level.

For at least one more game, the team will rise to the occasion and defeat Kentucky, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the third time under Otzelberger. It will be a thrilling affair that goes right down to the wire, winning 79-76.