Iowa State Cyclones Jumped by Big 12 Rival in Recent Bracketology Predictions

What else do the Iowa State Cyclones have to do to get back to being a one-seed in Bracketology predictions?

Jan 17, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger answers questions from the media after his team’s game against Cincinnati Bearcats at Fifth Third Arena. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

The last week has been magical for the Iowa State Cyclones men’s basketball team, with Hilton Coliseum living up to its reputation.

After suffering a brutal defeat at the hands of the TCU Horned Frogs on the road, the Cyclones returned home for two major matchups against the Kansas Jayhawks and Houston Cougars. Facing off against two top 10 teams in the AP Poll, it was the perfect opportunity to prove just how good they are.

Iowa State blew out Kansas 74-56 before a thrilling come-from-behind, 70-67 victory over Houston. Two more Quad 1 victories over elite programs, coupled with the UConn Huskies' shocking loss to the Creighton Bluejays, would assuredly have the Cyclones moving up Bracketology rankings, right?

Alas, that is not the case. In the recent update shared by Joe Lunardi of ESPN, UConn dropped after their unexpected loss from the ranks of the one-seeds. However, it wasn’t the Cyclones moving up to take their spot; it was the Cougars.

Iowa State jumped by Houston for No. 1 seed

Feb 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Houston Cougars Head Coach Kelvin Sampson gives instruction during the first half against the BYU Cougars at Marriott Center. | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

Despite defeating Houston, it was Kelvin Sampson’s squad that was pushed to the No. 1 seed, taking UConn’s spot. Iowa State remains a No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, where the No. 1 overall seed Michigan Wolverines, reside.

Matching up with the Cyclones as the No. 15 seed in their region is the East Tennessee State Buccaneers out of the SoCon.

Should Iowa State defeat them and move on to the Round of 32, they will face either the No. 7 seed Wisconsin Badgers, an at-large bid from the Big Ten, or the No. 10 seed Georgia Bulldogs, an at-large bid from the SEC.

Alas, a lot could change this weekend. The Cyclones are heading on the road for a tough matchup against the BYU Cougars in Provo. Slowing down future NBA star AJ Dybansta has been a challenge for virtually every opponent this season.

Cyclones control own destiny for No. 1 seed

Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) goes for a layup around Houston Cougars forward Joseph Tugler (11) during the first half in the3 Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 16, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Before taking the court in that game, Iowa State and its fans will be keeping a close eye on the premium matchups set for that afternoon.

Something will have to give when No. 1 Michigan plays against the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils. A major Big 12 clash will also occur when the No. 2-ranked Cougars face the No. 4-ranked Arizona Wildcats.

There will be a lot of changes in the AP Poll and Bracketology predictions depending on how those games turn out. However, Cyclones fans have a legitimate gripe seeing Houston jump their squad in the most recent predictions despite a recent head-to-head matchup going their way.

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