Iowa State Cyclones Have Ton of Work To Earn 1-Seed in Bracketology Predictions

Recent Bracketology predictions are pretty bleak for the Iowa State Cyclones earning a one-seed.

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger calls a play against Houston during the second half in the Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 16, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones picked up an incredible victory over the Houston Cougars on Big Monday, winning a thriller, 70-67.

It was the second consecutive victory for Iowa State against a top-10 opponent. Before defeating the No. 2-ranked Cougars, they took down the No. 9-ranked Kansas Jayhawks 74-56, both at Hilton Coliseum.

With two impressive victories over highly-ranked teams, some would have thought Iowa State would be inching closer to being a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament again. Alas, recent bracketology predictions shared by Joe Lunardi of ESPN aren’t overly encouraging.

Despite the two wins, the Cyclones remain a No. 2 seed. Their loss to the TCU Horned Frogs has been more than compensated for by the two wins that followed, but their predicted spot means they are further away from moving up to be a one-seed than originally thought.

Iowa State retains No. 2 seed in recent Bracketology predictions

Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) goes for a layup around Houston Cougars forward Joseph Tugler (11) during the first half in the3 Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 16, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Cyclones are currently in the Midwest Region, with the No. 1 overall-seeded Michigan Wolverines. That means Iowa State is viewed as the lowest-ranked No. 2 seed, insinuating they are closer to dropping to a 3-seed with a loss than moving up to a 1-seed with a victory.

Getting to play the first weekend in St. Louis and then the regionals in Chicago, should they advance, is a solid draw for the Cyclones. To make it to Chicago, they would have to beat the currently projected No. 15 seed East Tennessee Buccaneers from the Southern Conference.

In the No. 7 vs. No. 10 game, the Saint Louis Billikens, the automatic qualifier from the Atlantic 10, and the SMU Mustangs, an at-large team from the Big East, are matched up.

Alas, to really shake things up and earn a 1-seed for the first time in program history will take some work.

Highlights from Last Night's Victory ⤵️#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/m3VAjsEGv4

— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) February 17, 2026

There will be opportunities for Iowa State to bolster its resume down the stretch. In the regular season, they still have a matchup with one of the teams ahead of them, the Arizona Wildcats, who are the No. 1 seed in the West Region.

There is also a game against the BYU Cougars, another Quad 1 opponent, before whatever challenges lie ahead in the Big 12 tournament.

With eight teams projected in the current field by Lunardi, there will be plenty of resume-boosting games in the conference tournament. Right now, the UCF Knights hold one of the last four byes. The TCU Horned Frogs are one of the final four teams in the field, while the West Virginia Mountaineers are amongst the next four out.

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