Iowa State Cyclones Men's Basketball Bold Prediction for Baylor Bears Rematch

The Iowa State Cyclones are set for a second matchup with the Baylor Bears.

Jan 7, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) battles for position between Baylor Bears guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) and guard Tounde Yessoufou (24) during the first half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones have bounced back in a major way since a two-game blip in the radar following their 16-game winning streak to start the 2025-26 season.

Iowa State has now won four games in a row heading into its matchup with the Baylor Bears. This is already the second time the teams will be facing off after the Cyclones picked up a 70-60 win in Waco on Jan. 7.

Baylor comes into this contest on a winning streak of their own, picking up two straight Big 12 victories after losing seven out of eight to begin their conference schedule.

What will it take for Iowa State to ensure its winning streak is the one that remains intact? Here are four bold predictions for the game.

3-Point Shooting Gets On Track

Iowa State Cyclones forward Milan Momcilovic (22) takes a three-point shot Colorado Buffaloes guard Barrington Hargress (24) during the first half in the Big-12 men’s basketball on Jan. 29, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the first meeting, both teams struggled mightily shooting from 3-point range. The Cyclones made only six of 19 attempts, while the Bears were five out of 27. This time around, things will be different.

Iowa State lit up the Kansas State Wildcats from long distance in their last game despite their opponents entering the game as the best 3-point defending team in the Big 12. Baylor is currently allowing teams to make 36.9% of their 3-pointers in conference, which puts them in 14th.

It has been a weakness all season, ranking 246th nationally while allowing opponents to shoot 34.6% from distance. Now at Hilton Coliseum, the Cyclones will take full advantage.

They will knock down at least 12 3-pointers in the game, led by five from the nation’s best shooter, Milan Momcilovic.

Cameron Carr Slowed Down

Feb 4, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears guard Cameron Carr (43) shoots a free throw against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The player who makes the Bears offense click is Cameron Carr. In the first matchup, he scored 17 points on five of 13 shooting from the field, going two of six from 3-point range and five of seven from the foul line.

In the rematch, Iowa State is going to do an even better job of slowing him down. A key to defeating Baylor is taking him out of the game and daring other players on the team to step up and beat them.

With Carr as the No. 1 priority for the Cyclones’ defense, he will be held to single-digit points in the contest for only the second time this season.

Turnover Gap Widened

Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) put high pressure on Colorado Buffaloes forward Sebastian Rancik (7) during the first half in the Big-12 men’s basketball on Jan. 29, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bears have struggled at times this season with turnovers. They are last in the Big 12, averaging 12.2 per game, and on the year, they rank 192nd, turning the ball over 11.8 times per game.

In the first game, they turned the ball over 14 times, but were able to force 12 Cyclone turnovers. Where Iowa State separated was in points off turnovers, creating a 20-6 edge in that category.

This time around, the gap will be even larger because Iowa State will force at least 16 Baylor turnovers and turn the ball over themselves fewer than 10 times.

Iowa State Keeps Winning Streak Alive

Iowa State Cyclones forward Killyan Toure (27) gets congratulation from men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger during the second half against UCF in the Big-12 conference game on Jan. 20, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Bears are coming into Ames with a little bit of momentum, but that will be quelled by a Cyclones team that is just as hot.

It will be Iowa State extending its winning streak to five games, while Baylor sees their two-game streak come to an end. It won’t be a 30-point victory as they have accomplished in three out of their last four wins, but it will be convincing nonetheless.

The Cyclones will win 83-63 before turning their attention to the TCU Horned Frogs.