Iowa State Cyclones Receive Bold NCAA Tournament Prediction From Jay Bilas

The Iowa State Cyclones ended the regular season with a 25-6 record, which put them in fifth place in the Big 12 standings heading into the conference tournament.

With a bye into the second round, they destroyed the Arizona State Sun Devils by 49 points in their first game. In the quarterfinals against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, the Cyclones were able to exact some revenge on the team that handed them their only loss at Hilton Coliseum on the year, 75-53.

Iowa State fell short of another revenge game against the Arizona Wildcats in the semifinals, losing on a Jaden Bradley buzzer-beater. But their performance in Kansas City was enough to push them to the two-seed line for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

The Cyclones are the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, matched up with the Tennessee State Tigers in the Round of 64. They have an excellent draw, and ESPN analyst Jay Bilas expects them to take full advantage of it.

Jay Bilas predicts Final Four run for Iowa State

Mar 13, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones bench reacts after a play during the second half against the Arizona Wildcats at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

He recently shared his predictions for every game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, and Iowa State fans will be thrilled with the run he has predicted their favorite team will go on.

Bilas has predicted that the Cyclones will defeat Tennessee State, setting up a Round of 32 matchup with the Kentucky Wildcats. They will defeat the SEC representatives, advancing to the Sweet 16 for the third time under T.J. Otzelberger.

That is the furthest he has been able to lead Iowa State in his first four years at the helm. This time around, Bilas believes that Otzelberger is going to break through.

Another SEC foe, the Tennessee Volunteers, is predicted to face off against the Cyclones in the Sweet 16. Iowa State is predicted to beat them, taking full advantage of the turnover woes the Volunteers have had.

Iowa State has everything to be a contender

Iowa State Men's Basketball players Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic, and Joshua Jefferson posing for photo. — Iowa State Men's Basketball players Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic, and Joshua Jefferson stand for a photo during media day at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Oct. 8, 2025. | Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In the Elite Eight, the Cyclones are matched up against the No. 1 seed in their region, the Michigan Wolverines. The Big Ten contender made it this far, but the loss of L.J. Cason is finally too much to overcome, with Bilas predicting Iowa State will win the Midwest Region and advance to the Final Four.

There, they will get a third crack at Arizona. However, the college basketball analyst believes the outcome will be the same as the first two; a loss for Iowa State to the eventual national champion Wildcats, who are predicted to defeat the Michigan State Spartans.

Should the Cyclones live up to Bilas’s expectations, it would be the first time they made the Final Four since 1944. The last time they played in the Elite Eight was in 2000, when Marcus Fizer and Jamaal Tinsley were leading the way.

Cyclones have only one glaring weakness

Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey warming up. — Feb 21, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) warms up prior to a game between the BYU Cougars and the Iowa State Cyclones at Marriott Center. | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

This year’s squad is incredibly talented, led by a Big 3 of Joshua Jefferson, Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic. With a strong supporting cast, Iowa State has all the pieces of a championship contender.

The only real worry they have is inconsistent foul shooting. Momcilovic was the only player over 80% from the charity stripe at 88%. Jamarion Batemon was at 78.8%.

Jefferson and Lipsey are the only players who averaged at least two made free throws per game, but they shot 70.0% and 64.4%, respectively.