Iowa State Cyclones See Historic Change in Recent Bracketology Predictions

The Iowa State Cyclones are making moves in the recent Bracketology predictions.

Dec 6, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Dominick Nelson (11) dribbles past Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2) during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

If there were any doubts about how good a team the Iowa State Cyclones were, they were put to rest in their most recent game.

The Cyclones went on the road to face the Purdue Boilermakers, who were the No. 1-ranked team in the country. Traveling to West Lafayette, Indiana, to play at Mackey Arena is as challenging an environment that a team can face in college basketball.

Iowa State was not fazed in the slightest by the challenge that faced them. They went into Purdue’s home court and, in the words of head coach Matt Painter, took their spirit.

The Cyclones pulled off a historic upset, defeating the Boilermakers by 23 points. That tied the largest margin of defeat for a No. 1-ranked team in the AP Poll era. It is a performance that many people are taking note of, including Joe Lunardi of ESPN.

Iowa State skyrockets in recent Bracketology projections

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger calls a play against FDU during the first half of the season-opener on Nov. 3, 2025, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In his recent NCAA Men’s Bracketology for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, he has made a bold change with Iowa State. Not only are they No. 4 in the AP Poll, but he has them replacing Purdue on the 1-seed line as the top-ranked team in the South Region.

That would mean playing the Round of 64 and Round of 32 games in St. Louis, Missouri, before playing the second weekend games at the regional site in Houston, Texas.

In this update, the Cyclones are matched up with the winner of the No. 16 seed play-in game between the Southern Jaguars and Long Island University Sharks. Should they win their first game, they would be in line for a Blue Blood program with the UCLA Bruins and Kentucky Wildcats as the 8/9 seed matchup.

It is still incredibly early, with a brutal Big 12 schedule needing to be navigated. But, should Iowa State perform at a high enough level to be one of the top four-seeded teams in the tournament, it would be the first time in program history that they were on the 1-line.

2025-26 season could be special for Iowa State

Dec 6, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) dribbles the ball while Purdue Boilermakers center Oscar Cluff (45) defends during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

Twice, previously, they earned No. 2 seeds; in 2000 and 2001. But they have earned the right to be considered for a No. 1 seed after dismantling the previous No. 1-ranked team in the country on their home court.

This is shaping up into what could be a historic season for the program. The Cyclones haven’t advanced to the Final Four since 1944, and this could be their best chance to end that streak.

Joining Iowa State on the 1-line are the Michigan Wolverines, the top overall seed in the tournament, the Duke Blue Devils and the Arizona Wildcats.

Highlights from Yesterday's Victory ⤵️#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/BIL5HEPuge

— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) December 7, 2025

Two teams from the Big 12 landing No. 1 seeds speaks to how strong the top of the conference is. Overall, nine teams from the Big 12 are projected to make the field, which is the second most. 

Only the Big Ten, with 11, is expected to have more. The ACC and SEC are both projected to have eight teams in the field.