Iowa State vs. Arizona in Big 12 Tournament Bold Predictions

A trip to the Big 12 tournament championship game is up for grabs in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and Arizona Wildcats.

Mar 2, 2026; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Ivan Kharchenkov (8) attempts to keep possession of the ball during the first half of the game against the Iowa State Cyclones at McKale Memorial Center. | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones have looked magnificent during their first two games of the 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament, being held in Kansas City, Missouri.

They dominated the Arizona State Sun Devils in their second-round matchup, winning 91-42. The 49-point victory was historic. In their second game of the tournament, they exacted revenge on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, winning 75-53.

Accomplishing something that hasn’t been done in over three decades, the Cyclones are riding real positive momentum into their semifinal game against the Arizona Wildcats, who won their first game of the tournament over the UCF Knights, 81-59.

Can Iowa State keep rolling? Here are four bold predictions for their marquee matchup with the Wildcats.

Joshua Jefferson Stays Hot

Mar 12, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) drives to the basket around Texas Tech Red Raiders forward LeJuan Watts (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

There may not be a player in the Big 12 who is performing as well as the Cyclones’ senior forward. Joshua Jefferson has stuffed the stat sheet in two games, shooting 61.5% from the field and scoring 38 points with 25 rebounds, 10 assists, four steals and two blocks.

He has recorded a double-double in both contests thus far and will keep that positive momentum going against Arizona. In the first meeting just 11 days ago, the Wildcats held him to 2-of-17 shooting and forced him into four turnovers. He also committed four fouls.

Things will be different this time around. Jefferson will bounce back, scoring 19 points and making at least half of his shot attempts. He will have another double-double while handing out at least five assists.

Cyclones Make Brayden Burries Work

Mar 7, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) during the second half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Slowing down the dynamic freshman guard has been a challenge for all opponents. When Arizona was beginning to teeter against UCF, it was Brayden Burries who steadied the ship and pushed the team’s lead back up to nearly 20.

He has been excellent recently, scoring at least 20 points in four out of his last five games. The only time he didn’t? Against Iowa State.

They will find similar success against him this time around as well. Killyan Toure, Tamin Lipsey, Nate Heise and Jamarion Batemon are going to make life difficult for him all evening. For only the eighth time this season, and fourth time in 2026, he will score in single digits.

Iowa State Bench Produces Again

Mar 11, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Jamarion Batemon (1) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Arizona State Sun Devils at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

T.J. Otzelberger plays a tight eight-man rotation. Three players have prominent roles off the bench: Batemon, Heise and Dominykas Pleta; two freshmen and a sixth-year senior.

They have been reliable when their numbers have been called, and that will be the case once again in the semifinals. That trio combined to score 21 points against the Red Raiders and will reach the 20-point plateau again.

Heise and Batemon will combine for at least four 3-pointers made. Pleta will need to make his presence felt on the interior against Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka and will do just that, grabbing multiple offensive rebounds.

Iowa State Pulls Off Upset

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger calls a play against Houston during the second half in the Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 16, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Cyclones have exacted revenge on one team thus far in the Big 12 Tournament, defeating Texas Tech. They will do it again, this time against the Wildcats with a berth in the title game on the line.

This game is of great importance to Iowa State, which is clinging to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A victory here would all but seal that positioning, while potentially putting them in the mix for a No. 1 seed depending on how things go in other conference tournaments.

It won’t be easy, but the Cyclones will come away with a hard-fought 81-76 win.