Analyzing Iowa State’s Chances of Making Big 12 Championship

The Iowa State Cyclones are getting closer to the 2026 college football season, and the hype seems to be building every day. With a new-look roster, it’s clear that Iowa State fans have no idea how good the team could be throughout the season.

Throughout Matt Campbell’s 10-year tenure with the program, Iowa State reached two conference championship games. That was back in 2020, when they fell short to the Oklahoma Sooners, and in 2024, when they lost to the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Cyclones are yet to win a Big 12 conference championship.

Now under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers, Iowa State looks to get back to the conference championship in 2026.

But do they actually have a chance to get to the game this season? The chances may not be entirely zero, but they are extremely unlikely.

Iowa State is long shot to make Big 12 championship game

Iowa State football head coach Jimmy Rogers talks to media after first day practice. — Iowa State football head coach Jimmy Rogers talks to media after first day practice at the university’s Stark Performance Center in Ames, Iowa. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Cyclones were recently ranked last in the conference during the preseason media poll. 16th out of 16. Being good enough to not only finish in the top half but all the way up to the top two would be pretty tough.

There are some pretty good teams in the conference. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are ranked 12th in the preseason AP Top 25, with a fantastic group of returners.

The BYU Cougars are ranked number 15 with a fantastic rush game that can tear up defenses. The Utah Utes are ranked 21st, also with a run game that is elite. And the Houston Cougars are ranked 23rd entering the season, with a quarterback and wide receiver duo of Connor Weigman and Amare Thomas.

Assuming Iowa State would finish ahead of three of these teams seems unlikely.

Projections are not kind to Cyclones football team

The Cyclones are currently projected by most to win around four games next season. Personally, I have them at 5-7, just missing a bowl game. When the majority of the country believes a team isn’t going to a bowl game, it’s going to make things immensely tough to make it all the way to the conference championship game.

With that being said, the Arizona State Sun Devils were projected to finish last in the Big 12 in 2024 and made it all the way to the conference championship game, where they got a victory. You can never count anyone out in the Big 12, with all the chaos that happens year in and year out in the conference.

It’s going to take a lot out of many players: Jaylen Raynor, Aiden Flora, Omari Hayes, Tyler Fortenberry, Issac Terrell, Caden Crawford, Kyle Konrardy, and more. But if everything goes right, they may have a fantastic season.

Regardless, though, it’s pretty fair to assume they will not be in the Big 12 championship this season.

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