Iowa State Football Receives Brutal Bowl Projection for Season

There wasn’t a team in the country that underwent as many changes as the Iowa State Cyclones this offseason.

When Matt Campbell announced he was leaving for the Penn State Nittany Lions, the program was turned on its head. Coaches packed their bags for Penn State. More than 50 players entered the transfer portal, with nearly half following him to Happy Valley. Iowa State’s Class of 2026 was decimated.

Tasked with fixing that is Jimmy Rogers. A championship-winning coach with the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, he was with the Washington Cougars for one season before being hired by the Cyclones.

He is used to massive undertakings, coaching a Washington State roster that had 75 newcomers last year. The Cougars found success, earning a bowl bid, but history is not going to repeat itself in the opinion of Brett McMuprhy of On3.

Iowa State projected to miss bowl game this year

An Iowa State Cyclones football helmet is seen during a news conference for the Cheez-It Bowl, Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2021, at the Rosen Plaza Hotel in Orlando, Fla. | Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

The college football insider recently shared his projections for bowl games in the 2026 season. There will be 82 teams participating in bowl games this season, but he doesn’t expect Iowa State to be one of them.

The Cyclones have been left out of his projections, and it likely isn’t due to the same reasons as last season; the players voted not to play after Campbell’s departure, and the school was fined a lot of money by the Big 12 for not participating.

McMurphy’s reasoning for not including Iowa State in his bowl predictions isn’t too surprising. No one knows what to make of this team after all of the talent that departed in the offseason. There isn’t a program that has lost more starters in the portal than the Cyclones.

Rogers and his staff did as good a job as possible to replace the departures, but there are a lot of unknowns on the roster. No stone was left unturned looking for talent, with players from JUCO and FCS programs battling for prominent roles on the team.

Cyclones have a lot of unproven talent

Iowa State wide receiver Cody Jackson celebrates as running for his second touchdown around defensive back Duhron Goodman. — Iowa State wide receiver Cody Jackson (13) celebrates as running for his second touchdown around defensive back Duhron Goodman (21)during Spring football at Jack Trice Stadium on April 25, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Of course, being an underdog and exceeding expectations is a role that Rogers thrives in. Washington State was counted out heading into Year 1 of his tenure there, and they ended up qualifying for the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl, defeating the Utah State Aggies behind interim head coach Jesse Bobbit, who is the defensive coordinator once again.

At the very least, Iowa State knows its offense is in good hands with Jaylen Raynor. A three-year starter with the Arkansas State Red Wolves, he brings a dual-threat skill set and plenty of experience to replace Rocco Becht.

It is easy to overlook a team with as many unknowns as the Cyclones, but any opponent that underestimates them on the field would be making a huge mistake.

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