Iowa State Football Predicted for Tough First Season Under Jimmy Rogers

Struggles are expected for the Iowa State Cyclones in Year 1 under Jimmy Rogers.

Jul 8, 2026; Frisco, TX, USA; Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers speaks to reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Iowa State Cyclones will start a new era when the 2026 college football season kicks off next month.

For the first time in a decade, they have a new leader on the sidelines. Jimmy Rogers, hired away from the Washington State Cougars, will be replacing Matt Campbell, who accepted the head coaching position with the Penn State Nittany Lions and brought along almost the entire coaching staff and most of the eligible roster along with him.

The roster purge left Rogers and Iowa State in a tough spot. He and his staff have done as good a job as possible to restock the talent, but they are certainly facing an uphill battle in the Big 12 in 2026.

So much so, predictions aren’t in their favor. Over at CBS Sports, Brad Crawford has projected game-by-game results for every team in the conference. Unsurprisingly, he doesn’t believe the Cyclones are going to find much success in Year 1 under Rogers.

Iowa State predicted for tough 2026 season in Big 12

Sep 7, 2024; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; An Iowa State Cyclones helmet sits on the sidelines before the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

He has predicted Iowa State to finish 4-8 on the season and 2-7 in the Big 12. Their victories will come against the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks, Bowling Green Falcons, West Virginia Mountaineers and Cincinnati Bearcats.

That means losses against the Iowa Hawkeyes, Utah Utes, BYU Cougars, Arizona Wildcats, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Baylor Bears, UCF Knights and Kansas State Wildcats.

As Crawford notes, a major reason for his predictions unfolding in that fashion is their signing class being near the bottom of the Power 4 ranks. Rogers has experience working with revamped rosters; the Washington State group in 2025 had 75 newcomers on the team.

Cyclones predicted to struggle on the road

Jul 8, 2026; Frisco, TX, USA; Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers speaks to reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

However, he is facing a much bigger challenge integrating so many new players, from all levels of college football, into a Big 12 program. As a result, the toss-up games against teams thought to be on their tier, such as Baylor, UCF and Kansas State, are all predicted to be losses.

Another interesting takeaway is that the Cyclones aren’t predicted to win a single game away from Jack Trice Stadium in 2026. The lack of Power 4 experience certainly plays a role in that, as winning on the road is a tall task; doing so in hostile conference environments most of the roster has never been part of is even tougher.

Rogers knows how to get the most out of what looks to be an overmatched roster. Iowa State shouldn’t be counted out from being able to secure a spot in a bowl game, but they will need a lot to go right and in their favor during the season.