Iowa State Projected To Make Bowl Game in Statistical Rankings

The Iowa State Cyclones have a shot at a bowl game based on some analytic projections.

Nov 29, 2025; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Iowa State Cyclones defensive back Drew Surges (29) and defensive back Caden Matson (43) celebrate after an interception during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones have a massive difference in projections across the college football world.

Fans and people close to the program believe the Cyclones can continue their winning consistency even with an entirely new roster under first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers. But most national college football writers believe that it’s going to be a massive down year for Iowa State.

Personally, I’m in between. It’s fair to acknowledge that the Cyclones aren’t nearly the same team as last year, which could take a big toll. But on the other hand, Iowa State does have some intriguing pieces that can compete.

In addition, the “name tax” of a program like the Cyclones can go a long way. Great coaches, passionate fans, and an overall aura around a big program like Iowa State can help them succeed next season.

Iowa State projected to be bowl eligible with six wins

Iowa State's Jim Bonifas (63) and Carson Hansen (26) celebrate a first down in the second half of the college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Iowa State Cyclones at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday Nov. 29, 2025. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Punt and Rally is a website that uses statistical analysis to project how teams will do in college football next season. And they have given the Cyclones interesting game by game predictions.

Punt and Rally has two games where they believe Iowa State will almost surely win. That’s game one against the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks and the Bowling Green Falcons. The Cyclones have a 95% chance to take down SEMO and an 88% chance against Bowling Green.

Iowa State has two other games with above a 50% chance to win, against the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Cincinnati Bearcats. Both games are at home, and give the Cyclones a 62% chance to win each one.

Iowa State has just under a 50% chance to take down four other teams on its schedule. Against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, they are given a 47% chance. The UCF Knights, Baylor Bears, and Kansas State Wildcats are all at 45%.

Iowa State faces some real challenges with schedule

Iowa State football head coach Jimmy Rogers talks to media during NFL football pro-day at Bergstrom Football Complex on March 24, 2026, in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The final four teams are going to be a challenge. The Cyclones play on the road against the Iowa Hawkeyes, given just a 22% chance of winning.

They play against the Utah Utes with a 38% chance at home. They go to the BYU Cougars with just a 14% chance to take them down. Then, finally, Iowa State has just a 26% chance to beat the Arizona Wildcats.

The Cyclones have an interesting season ahead. They could completely fall on their face and win just a few games, but also defy expectations and have a great season. Punt and Rally predicts something in the middle, which feels right for a team like Iowa State going into 2026.