Iowa State Receives Shocking Bowl Game Prediction for Next Season

The Iowa State Cyclones football team is going to look a lot different in 2026 than it did at the end of the 2025 season.

For the first time in a decade, it won’t be Matt Campbell on the sidelines as head coach. Instead, it will be Jimmy Rogers, hired to replace the winningest coach in program history after he accepted the Penn State Nittany Lions head coaching job.

Rogers had a lot of work to do with the roster after more than 50 players entered the transfer portal and a 22-player Class of 2026 dwindled to six holdovers. A lot of credit should be given to him and his staff for how quickly they worked to restock talent on the team.

However, early projections aren’t overly kind to the Cyclones. Over at On3 (subscription required), Brett McMurphy shared way-too-early Bowl Game predictions for the 2026 season. In a surprising turn of events, Iowa State isn’t predicted to participate in a game.

Iowa State predicted to not be invited to bowl game

Jul 14, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of the Iowa State Cyclones helmet logo during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Even with three bowl games being eliminated in 2026, there are still 78 teams that will be invited to participate in a postseason game. Despite over half of Division I college football teams having the opportunity to play, Iowa State isn’t expected to be amongst the invitees.

That would be a massive disappointment to start the Rogers era, finishing with a record poor enough to not get an invite to a bowl game. Especially when taking into consideration that 13 Big 12 teams are part of McMurphy’s predictions.

Representing the conference in the College Football Playoff is the Texas Tech Red Raiders for the second consecutive year as the No. 6 seed. Joining them is the Utah Utes, who land an at-large bid as the No. 9 seed.

The only teams that aren’t projected to earn an invite, along with Iowa State, are the West Virginia Mountaineers and UCF Knights.

Cyclones expected to be Big 12 bottom feeder

Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers speaking to crowd at Hilton Coliseum. — Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers speaks during a timeout in the first half in the Iowa State and Iowa men’s basketball Cy-Hawk series at Hilton coliseum on Dec. 11, 2025, in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

That means even the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who haven’t won a conference game since Nov. 25, 2023, and are beginning a new era after firing Mike Gundy last year, are projected to finish better than the Cyclones in the standings this upcoming fall.

So too are the Colorado Buffaloes, whose only Big 12 victory in 2025 came over Iowa State, making them and Oklahoma State the only two teams not to win multiple conference matchups this past season.

If McMurphy’s predictions come to fruition, this will be the first time since 2013 through 2017 that Iowa State didn’t play in a bowl game in consecutive years. That time spanned the final three seasons of Paul Rhoads as coach and the first with Campbell at the helm.

Despite finishing with an 8-4 record and being invited to a bowl for the 2025 season, Cyclones players declined to participate after the coaching change was announced.