The Ceiling and Floor of Iowa State Quarterback Jaylen Raynor

Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor has a wide floor and ceiling range.

Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) throws against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones have a new sheriff in town.

After an abundance of star quarterbacks throughout the years, such as Seneca Wallace, Brock Purdy, and Rocco Becht, Iowa State now has a new star coming in, one who could potentially be the next big thing in Ames, IA.

His name is Jaylen Raynor. He was a three-year starter with the Arkansas State Red Wolves, where he consistently put up great numbers throughout the years.

Raynor was always phenomenal through the air and a solid threat on the ground as well. While he did have occasional trouble with his decision-making, he made up for it with his dynamic play. Last season, he threw for 3,361 yards, ranking 20th across the entire nation.

Jaylen Raynor can stuff stat sheet at quarterback

Iowa State quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) runs with the ball during Spring football at Jack Trice Stadium on April 25, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Raynor has been great at the Group of Five level, but many are wondering whether he really can make the jump to become a true star in college football. He definitely has insanely high potential, but there is also a chance that things will crash down.

So how good or bad could Raynor really be? Let’s take a look at two scenarios of how his year could play out, one being his ceiling and the other being his floor.

Ceiling

Raynor starts the season great. He fits well in new head coach Jimmy Rogers’ system, and things work out very quickly. He helps Iowa State to a good record, a bowl game, and potentially an iconic win.

Raynor succeeds in the air, becoming one of the best passers in the country in terms of yards. On the ground, he navigates through defenders well, knows when to slide, and gets the extra yards.

He ends the year near the top five quarterbacks in the Big 12, and leads the Cyclones to a good campaign.

Floor

Northern Illinois Huskies defensive back Javaughn Byrd (2) sacks Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) late in the Camellia Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala., on Saturday December 23, 2023. | Mickey Welsh / USA TODAY NETWORK

Things could be great for Raynor, but they could also be really bad. Early in the season, when he’s needed most, things don’t go his way, and he struggles to connect with his teammates.

At times throughout the year, he shows promise, but more in a potential kind of way rather than a finished product kind of way. For a senior, that just can’t happen.

He has trouble throwing consistent passes and a lot get picked off. On the ground, he’s still fast, just not as fast as some Power-4 defenders. He still finishes the year as a decent player, but can’t lead Iowa State to a bowl game, their ultimate goal this season.