Iowa State Cyclones Continue To Be Disrespected in Big 12 Analytics Projection

The Iowa State Cyclones have not received much credit from their undefeated start to the season in a recently Big 12 projection.

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell watches from the sideline against South Dakota during the third quarter in the home game opening at Jack Trice Stadium on August 30, 2025, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With Week 5 of the college football season here, the Iowa State Cyclones will be preparing for an important matchup against the Arizona Wildcats. This is a conference showdown of two undefeated teams, and the Cyclones will be looking for another big win. 

The bye week certainly came at a good time for Iowa State, who didn’t play their best game against the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Week 3. Now, they should be fresh and improved for their matchup at home against the Wildcats. 

Even though the team is undefeated, one of their signature wins from the start of the year isn’t looking all that impressive anymore. The Kansas State Wildcats have gotten off to a terrible start to the campaign after losing the opener to the Cyclones in Ireland. With a 1-3 record, that win has lost some of its luster. 

With Iowa State resting in Week 4, they did see a somewhat significant shift in the Big 12. The Texas Tech Red Raiders picked up a significant victory against the Utah Utes on the road, and that has changed the conference's landscape quite a bit, with a contender emerging. 

Heather Dinich of ESPN recently spoke about how the Big 12 is shaping up after Week 4 of the college football season. For the Cyclones, they were the team spotlighted, and despite being a perfect 4-0, the ESPN analytics department gave them the seventh-best chance of reaching the Big 12 final at just 13 percent. 

Chances to Make Big 12 Title Game Far Too Low

Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While it is certainly understandable to see the Red Raiders become the new favorite to win the Big 12 after their signature win, the Cyclones really aren’t receiving the credit that they deserve. This is a team that is undefeated with wins over the Wildcats and the Iowa Hawkeyes. Heading into Week 5, they are also a significant favorite against Arizona and could very well be 5-0 when the week is completed. 

For them to currently be listed with the seventh-best chances of winning the conference at this point seems far too low. Furthermore, they also don’t have the Red Raiders or the Utes on their regular-season schedule, making their road to the Big 12 title game a little bit easier. 

While the Cyclones might not be a flashy team that is blowing teams out, they are proving to be a program that gets the job done. At the end of the day, wins are what matter, and Iowa State is capable of winning games.