Iowa State Cyclones Get Disrespected in Recent Big 12 Analytics Projection

The Iowa State Cyclones were recently disrespected in a Big 12 standings projection.

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell watches from the sideline against South Dakota during the third quarter in the home game opening at Jack Trice Stadium on August 30, 2025, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the Iowa State Cyclones on their bye week in Week 4, the team is getting some much-needed rest after a solid start to the season. Coming into the year, expectations for the program were high after a great campaign in 2024. So far, they have been living up to those expectations. 

After significant changes in the landscape of the Big 12, new teams, including the Cyclones, are trying to prove that they are the team to beat in the conference, with some of the traditional powers leaving. 

So far, it is Iowa State who is leading the conference with the highest rating in the AP Poll, and they are a perfect 4-0 on the season. Even though they have been playing in mostly close games, the Cyclones keep making the plays when they need to. 

With an undefeated record so far, Iowa State has been widely considered the team to beat currently in the conference. However, not all analytics believe in the Cyclones being able to sustain their success.  ESPN Analytics are shockingly only giving the Cyclones a 15.3 percent chance of reaching the Big 12 title game after Week 3. 

Are These Chances Too Low?

William Purnell-Imagn Images

It is shocking to see that Iowa State has only the sixth-best odds in the conference currently to make the Big 12 title game. While this is a conference that does feel that multiple teams could win it, the early resume for the Cyclones has been impressive. 

Even though the narrow win against Arkansas State might not have been great, the team was playing their fourth game in as many weeks, which also included a trip to Ireland. When looking at the conference currently, Iowa State is only one of two teams with a conference win, and they also have an out-of-conference win against a decent Big 10 team in the Iowa Hawkeyes. 

While there are certainly some good teams in the conference, the big showdown this coming weekend between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Utah Utes will be telling. As the highest ranked team in the conference, it feels distrustful that the analytics don't believe in them as much as other teams.

Iowa State might not be a flashy team, but they are proving to be winners, and that should count for something. Furthermore, their schedule compared to some others in the conference could be seen as favorable going forward.

With a 4-0 start to the season and some winnable games coming up, this number should certainly rise for the Cyclones in the coming weeks. However, the argument can easily be made that they should be considered the team with the highest chance of making a Big 12 final.