Cincinnati at Kansas Basketball Preview
For the second time this month, the Kansas Jayhawks are back at home trying to avenge a road loss to an inferior team. First, it was a top-10 matchup with Oklahoma. This time it’s against Big 12 newcomer Cincinnati. The matchup is the first between these two programs since 1996-97, when KU was No. 1 and the No. 4 Bearcats were led by Bob Huggins. The Jayhawks won the game 72-65.
Opponent Overview
Team: Cincinnati
Record: 13-5
KenPom: 33
Line: KU -7
Team Form
Potentially because of the way the four new Big 12 teams struggled to adjust to the jump up in competition during the football season, it’s been a bit of a surprise how well teams like the Bearcats have fared in hoops. This is also a program still trying to find its stride since Mick Cronin left for UCLA.
UC may only be 2-3 in conference play, but that doesn’t really do justice to how well the Bearcats have played. Both of Cincinnati’s wins (BYU on the road and TCU at home) were against ranked teams, and the three losses (Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma) were by a combined eight points. The Bearcats have been much better at home than on the road, with three of the five losses coming either on the road or a neutral site, while the two road wins are BYU (a solid win) and an overtime victory over Howard (No. 265 in KenPom).
Players to Watch
Cincinnati’s offense has succeeded through balance. Eight Bearcats average between 7.5 and 13.5 points per game and UC ranks 65th nationally in bench minutes. Leading the way in points and rebounds is 6-11 big man Viktor Lakhin, who is averaging a career best 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Hunter Dickinson will have to do a good job on the boards against Lakhin, who grabs nearly three offensive rebounds per game.
Point guard Day Day Thomas isn’t an outside threat but gets inside the arc and averages 11.2 ppg while being a solid ball distributor. He’s also dangerous on defense with 1.6 steals per game. In the recent contest against TCU, Thomas had three steals and six assists while putting up 21 points.
Wings Daniel Skillings, John Newman, and Simas Lukosius are all capable of going off for the Bearcats. Skillings dropped 24 against Baylor, Newman scored 20 against TCU, and Lukosius had a team-high 17 against Oklahoma. Newman is the biggest three-point threat but Lukosius is also dangerous from deep, while Skillings does most of his work from inside and is a solid rebounder.
Matchups to Watch
Unlike West Virginia, Cincinnati does not excel at getting to the free-throw line (259th in free-throw attempts) or making foul shots (66.9%). But Kansas is going to have to do a better job of rebounding against the Bearcats than it did in Morgantown. UC is a top-20 offensive rebounding team and is top 10 at keeping opponents off the offensive glass.
Turnovers weren’t a problem in the West Virginia loss, but KU can’t backtrack on Monday. In Big 12 play alone, Cincinnati is third in the conference at forcing turnovers (20% rate). But in their two losses, the Bearcats have struggled with turnovers as well. UC turned it over 18 times at BYU and 15 times against TCU. Cincinnati has been able to weather that issue because it forces so many turnovers, but if Kansas can stay around the 10-turnover mark and force 15 from Cinci, it will be in better shape.
Turnovers are one of the reasons why the Bearcats have been the third best defense in Big 12 games so far. But Kansas has also been the No. 1 offense in conference play while Cincinnati is down at No. 12 in terms of efficiency. Will this game live in the 60s or 70s? If Kansas can score 75 points, I’m not sure the Bearcats can keep up offensively.
Prediction
Cincinnati has proven to be a scrappy, energetic team that never gives up. Kansas should be motivated to fix the mistakes that cost it another road win and get right like it did last time, but the Bearcats will make sure to take advantage if KU comes out sloppy and not ready to play. I would guess that the coaching staff is hammering home rebounding and getting 50/50 balls, and this will be a good test to see how well the team is embracing it.
I’m still not sure anyone is winning in Allen Fieldhouse this year, but unless Kansas can get hot from deep and sustain it for two halves, I don’t see this one being a double-digit game. KU will need the same sort of production from Johnny Furphy and Nick Timberlake but the defense has to be more locked in if the Jayhawks want to come away with a win.
Kansas 74, Cincinnati 68
Record ATS: 9-9
Record Straight Up: 15-3
(Last game: West Virginia 91, Kansas 85)
