Five Questions Ahead of the 2023-24 Kansas Basketball Season
The end of October means the start of basketball, and Kansas is on top of the college hoops world. The Jayhawks are ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 preseason poll for the fourth time in school history and the conclusion of the six-year NCAA infractions case with no new significant penalties means the program can look ahead without fear.
There are plenty of storylines surrounding the Jayhawks that are worth driving into before the first tip-off. Here are five big questions heading into the season and some thoughts on how they could turn out.
Can Hunter Dickinson Live Up to the Hype?
All signs point to yes. Not only because Bill Self knows how to scheme for a big man like Dickinson and he has arguably the best pass-first point guard in the game. But Dickinson has only needed 12-13 shots per game to average 18 points the last two years. The argument for a potential dip in numbers would be that he now has so much talent around him that will also be worthy of touches. But the Jayhawks are not very deep (more on that later) and they will likely play fast enough to get 60+ attempts per game, so Dickinson should be able to get his and be a distributor and get his teammates involved.
Which Freshman Will Stand Out the Most This Year?
I’m pretty bullish on this freshman class over the course of their careers. But for this year, Elmarko Jackson makes the most sense as the freshman who will have the biggest immediate impact. Jamari McDowell looks like one of those players who will be a really strong player by the time he’s a junior. And Johnny Furphy seems to look the part but may take a bit longer to transition to not only the college game but also the American game coming from Australia.
Jackson is big, athletic, and with the dismissal of Arterio Morris, he’s in line to have a bigger role and will have the ball in his hands more than the other two freshmen. I would guess that Nick Timberlake starts the year at the two spot, but it wouldn’t shock me if Jackson was starting alongside Dajuan Harris by January.
How Much of a Factor Will KU’s Lack of Depth Be?
The answer is directly related to the Jayhawks’ injury luck. Self doesn’t typically like to have a rotation of more than eight or nine deep, and the top 8-9 are really good: Harris, Timberlake, Kevin McCullar, KJ Adams, Dickinson, Jackson, Furphy, Parker Braun, and McDowell. You also have Zach Clemence and his redshirt you can remove in case of emergency.
The biggest lack of depth is in ball handlers and centers, so it’ll be imperative that those groups remain out of foul trouble and stay healthy. Self can always go small if center depth dwindles, but Harris and Jackson are going to be needed on the floor at all times all year.
Who is Most Poised for a Breakout Season?
He was arguably the answer last year, too, but KJ Adams is in a prime position to make another big leap this year. Adams can now play a more natural position in the four, and not only will Dickinson take up a ton of attention, he’s also an excellent passer who can find Adams in space and let him use his athleticism playing at the rim. We already saw the potential in Puerto Rico, where the big-to-big passing was on display.
Adams should be able to crash the offensive glass and be dangerous in transition as the Jayhawks look to play fast. He averaged 10.6 points and 4.3 rebounds last year and I could see those jump to 13 points and 6-7 rebounds this year while serving a valuable role on both sides of the ball.
Can KU Meet Its High Expectations?
The last three times the Jayhawks have been ranked No. 1 in the preseason poll, they have failed to make it to the Sweet 16. In 2018-19, the injury to Udoka Azubuike and saga with Lagerald Vick, who ultimately left the team, proved too much (KU went 26-10 and was a four seed). In 2004-05, Kansas went a respectable 23-7 (12-4 in the Big 12) and was a three seed losing to Bucknell in the first round. The other time was 2009-10, where Kansas looked like the best team most of the year and finished the regular season as the AP No. 1 but Northern Iowa pulled off one of the great upsets in recent tournament history.
The worst previous outcome was somewhat out of KU’s on-court control with injuries and personnel issues. I don’t know that the Jayhawks will go 33-3 like the 09-10 team, but being a one seed and making the second weekend will be the standard for this team. And while the NCAA Tournament is an unpredictable beast, I would guess Kansas will have more highs than lows this season.
