Kansas at Kentucky Basketball Preview: Can KU Get Revenge For Last Year's Beatdown?
The positive: Kansas gets a much-needed break from the grind of the Big 12 as the SEC-Big 12 Challenge takes place throughout the day Saturday. The negative: the Jayhawks still have to face a top-30 KenPom team that has one four games in a row to avoid a four-game losing streak.
Not to mention it’s another blue blood with a Hall of Fame coach (regardless of what you think of him this year) and the reigning national player of the year. It’s Kansas and Kentucky, the two winningest programs in a game where the Jayhawks will be looking for revenge for the beatdown UK gave them in Lawrence a season ago.
Opponent Overview
Team: Kentucky
Record: 14-6
KenPom: 29
Line: UK -2
Team Form
Kentucky is one of the handful of blue bloods this year that have struggled compared to preseason expectations (Duke, UNC, Indiana…). The Wildcats are just 1-5 in quad-one games and also have a quad-four loss on the resume. But UK has gotten better of late.
Kentucky is on a four-game winning streak. The schedule has not been the toughest, but it did start with that lone Q1 win at Tennessee. Since then, it has played Georgia, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt. All were no-doubt wins and A&M is looking strong, but it’s also fair to point out this is no Big 12 gauntlet.
Players to Watch
It’s rare that a national player of the year returns to school, but that’s what has happened with Oscar Tshiebwe thanks to NIL and a changing NBA landscape. Tshiebwe hasn’t been able to quite match his NPOY season from last year—and it was unlikely he was going to win twice given the nature of voters and incumbents—but he’s still been really, really good. Tshiebwe is averaging 16.6 points and 13.9 rebounds and is somehow even better on the offensive boards this year, grabbing 5.7 per game.
Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves is second on the team in scoring at 12.9 ppg, which is likely a surprise given that Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston were both five-star recruits coming in. Wallace has had a strong season so far at 11.2 points and 3.6 assists per game, but what has stood out the most has been his defense. Wallace is an excellent defender and is averaging 1.9 steals per game.
Jacob Toppin (11 points, 6.6 boards), Sahvir Wheeler (8.2 points, 5.8 assists, three-point specialist CJ Fredrick (8.2 ppg), and Livingston (5.2 ppg) round out the Wildcats’ rotation.
Matchups to Watch
Kansas better get some bodies and energy down low because Kentucky is dominant on the offensive glass. UK is second nationally, grabbing 38.8% of its missed shots. The Wildcats are also excellent at keeping opponents off the offensive glass.
What’s interesting—and where Kentucky has run into trouble—is that for a team that grabs so many of its own misses, UK isn’t very efficient from inside the arc. Kentucky ranks 174th in 2-point efficiency. Compare that to other great offensive rebounding teams Kansas has faced lately (Baylor, TCU, and K-State); all three of those teams are in the top 100 in 2-point percentage.
The Wildcats are also an excellent (41st nationally) 3-point-shooting team, but UK just doesn’t take them much. The 32.2% of threes to field-goal attempts is 304th in the country. Kentucky has also regressed a bit during SEC play, shooting just 32.7% compared to 36.9% on the year. The other SEC regression is on the defensive side. UK has the 10th-best defense in the conference in terms of defensive efficiency and the Wildcats are letting SEC opponents shoot 52% from the field.
Prediction
It feels like the sky is falling right now, but this is the same team that also won 16 of 17 before this point. It just requires consistency from guys like Kevin McCullar, Dajuan Harris, and KJ Adams. Kentucky is not going to force many turnovers, and they have been known to give up points close to the basket.
The Jayhawks have to keep a long, athletic UK team off the glass. It can’t be one-and-done for KU on the offensive end every time while Kentucky gets three or four chances on a possession. I’m not confident this will happen completely, but I do think this team, with five days to prepare, will look different than last weekend.
I’ll take Kansas to rebound in Lexington and extend the lead as the winningest program in the process.
Kansas 77, Kentucky 73
Prediction record
10-8-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 74-71 KU | Actual: 75-69 Baylor
