Kansas State at Kansas Basketball Preview
The Kansas Jayhawks have one final game inside Allen Fieldhouse for the 2023-24 season and few chances remaining to get right ahead of the NCAA Tournament. It’s also a chance for payback in the Sunflower Showdown as KU looks to avenge the 75-70 overtime loss in Manhattan on February 5.
Opponent Overview
Team: Kansas State
Record: 17-12
KenPom: 68
Line: KU -10.5
Team Form
The first win against Kansas was a bright spot in a dim period for the Wildcats. KSU had lost the four games prior to beating the Jayhawks and then lost the three games after the overtime win. BYU, TCU, and Texas all gave K-State a loss before the Wildcats were able to win two in a row against BYU and West Virginia at home. Though even that wasn’t all reason for celebration. KSU blew a 25-point lead to trail WVU by three late in the game and ended up pulling away in overtime.
Most recently, KSU’s road troubles continued with a 74-72 loss to a shorthanded Cincinnati team on Saturday. The Wildcats are now 1-7 in away Big 12 games on the season.
Players to Watch
Tylor Perry and Cam Carter were the biggest factors in K-State winning the first meeting, combining for 45 points and 7-17 shooting from three (making all but two of the Wildcats’ three-point shots). Carter also led the Wildcats in rebounding with 11 and the two went 12-14 from the line. Perry has been on a tear of late, scoring 29 and 26 in his last two games and hitting six threes in each.
Arthur Kaluma rounds out KSU’s three-headed attack. Kaluma scored 13 in the first matchup and was just 1-6 from three. He’s shooting 35% on the season but is hot and cold from deep. He went 0-5 against Cincinnati after hitting two in the previous three games. Kaluma is best when efficient from inside the arc. He was 3-5 in the KU game and was best in the win against BYU when he was 6-8 from two and got to the line 12 times for 28 points.
Matchups to Watch
K-State’s offense has been solid at shooting but has not been efficient in conference play, as the Wildcats are 11th in offensive efficiency. A major reason for this is KSU is last in the Big 12, turning the ball over 22.4% of the time. The Wildcats gave it away 16 times in the first meeting and has turned it over at least 11 times in every Big 12 game. That includes 19 turnovers in their most recent game against Cincinnati. Combine this with the fact that the KSU defense doesn’t force many turnovers and KU likes to run and Kansas has a clear advantage here if it can capitalize on it.
The KSU defense has been much better, ranking third in defensive efficiency. K-State has the top three-point defense in the conference and is third in two-point defense. KU only shot 3-15 from deep in the first game – which has been the case in several occasions – but the bigger story was KU’s inability to finish inside the arc, only shooting 47% from two. KSU allows a ton of offensive boards and KU didn’t take advantage in round one, only grabbing seven while KSU got nine.
Prediction
About everything that could have gone wrong for KU in the first meeting did go wrong. Johnny Furphy was throwing up before the game and multiple Jayhawks battled a virus. Kevin McCullar was hobbled on his knee. And KSU came out firing from three to get the crowd behind it.
Now it’s Allen Fieldhouse that will be electric not only because it’s KSU but because 16,300 fans don’t want to see KU end the year losing two straight at home. Honestly, the BYU loss – especially how it happened – is probably one of the worst outcomes for K-State, because now KU is hungry and likely angry. KSU has not proven it can win on the road and I think the KU we see is closer to the one that beat Texas decisively than the one that lost to BYU.
Kansas 77, Kansas State 65
Record ATS: 14-15
Record Straight Up: 22-7
(Last game: Baylor 82, Kansas 74)
