Kansas vs Kentucky Champions Classic Preview
After two home blowouts, the Kansas Jayhawks will face their first test of the season at the Champions Classic in Chicago against Kentucky, bringing a matchup of the two winningest programs in college basketball.
Opponent Overview
Team: Kentucky
Record: 2-0
KenPom: 15
Line: KU -4.5
Team Form
The Wildcats made it a habit to get off to slow starts in their first two contests. Kentucky beat New Mexico State by 40 in the opener, but it was a two-point game midway through the first and an eight-point game at the half. It was a similar story against Texas A&M Commerce, who actually jumped out to an 8-0 lead and once led 11-2 before UK climbed out of the hole and got up eight at the break.
The second halves have been different stories, which shouldn’t be a surprise given the competition level. Kentucky outscored its first two opponents by a combined 92-48 in the second halves.
Players to Watch
It’s Kentucky, so of course there are talented freshmen to talk about. DJ Wagner is the biggest name of the group – a top-10 recruit in the class with a father and grandfather who were professional basketball players – and has looked decent so far, averaging 12 points and 3.5 assists per game. The freshman who has arguably looked the best has been Rob Dillingham, who is averaging 14.5 points, five rebounds, and 3.5 assists through two games, while Justin Edwards, who is actually the highest-rated recruit at No. 3 at 247 Sports, is averaging 14 points and six boards.
The Wildcats’ best player to start the season is the senior who tested the NBA waters and UK’s best shooter, Antonio Reeves. Reeves is averaging a team-high 16 points with four rebounds and 1.5 assists while hitting seven of 14 threes.
But maybe the biggest players to focus on are those that won’t be playing. They also happen to be the largest players on the team. Both 7-1 freshman Aaron Bradshaw and 7-0 sophomore Ugonna Onyenso are out with foot injuries and won’t be back for a few weeks. Meanwhile, 7-2 freshman Zvonimir Ivišić from Croatia is still waiting on clearance from the NCAA to be eligible to play.
Matchups to Watch
The last paragraph is a key to this game. Kentucky is known for its length and athleticism and is coming off a season where it was the top offensive rebounding team in the country. Through two games without Bradshaw, Onyenso, and Ivišić, Kentucky is grabbing just 27.8% of its offensive rebounds, which is 215th nationally. This is the rare matchup of these two teams where Kansas has the advantage in the post.
The three-point shooting for Kentucky has also just been rough outside of Reeves. Kentucky is shooting just 32.7% from deep so far, and if you take Reeves’ shots away from it, the Wildcats are just 10-38 (26.3%). Can Kansas continue its hot shooting from beyond the arc away from Allen Fieldhouse? That will be something to watch in this battle.
Something else to watch is that with those players out, Kentucky only played eight players (outside of the final minute) in the opener and seven in game two. So, neither of these teams has deep benches and it’s going to be interesting to watch which reserves make the biggest impact.
Finally, the area Kentucky has been best is in taking care of the ball. UK is second nationally in turnover rate at 6.6% and is second in steals rate, giving up steals just 2.2% of the time. KU, meanwhile, is a bit more turnover-prone given its fast pace, where Kentucky has played at the 288th slowest pace so far. Can KU speed UK up and cause more turnovers? Or will Kentucky get a handful of additional possessions because it is more careful with the ball than the Jayhawks?
Prediction
It’s been interesting to watch the line over the past 24 hours. Kansas opened at -5.5 and it immediately dropped to -3.5 before evening out at -4.5.
With an early season, neutral-site game, anything can happen. But right now Kansas is the more complete team and Kentucky not having its post presence in Bradshaw and Onyenso to go up against Hunter Dickinson is significant. Calipari’s teams are built on size and athleticism, and while the Wildcats are plenty athletic, they’re not big right now.
This matchup could look much different later in the season. But right now Dickinson will be a big mismatch and I like Kansas’ bench better than Kentucky’s right now, so I’m going with Kansas to cover in a competitive game and not get to 99 points for the first time all year.
Kansas 79, Kentucky 73
Record ATS: 1-1
Record Straight Up: 2-0
(Last game: Kansas 99, Manhattan 61)
