UCONN vs Kansas Preview
No matter what the month, it’s going to be difficult to find a more anticipated matchup than what will take place Friday night in Allen Fieldhouse. The Kansas Jayhawks are welcoming the UCONN Huskies in what is both a matchup of No. 4 vs No. 5 in the polls and the last two national champions.
Opponent Overview
Team: UCONN
Record: 7-0
KenPom: 3
Line: KU - 3.5
Team Form
UCONN has picked up right where it left off last year. The Huskies have the longest winning streak in the country at 13 games dating back to last year. All seven of the wins this year have been by double digits, with the closest opponent being Texas, who fell 81-71. Texas (No. 31) is just one of two top-100 KenPom teams that UCONN has faced so far and the only in the top 50 (the other being No. 72 Indiana).
Players to Watch
The reigning national champions lost a lot of talent to the NBA and still have a strong group back looking to repeat. Sophomore 7-2 big man Donovan Clingan got the most buzz in the offseason as the backup to Adama Sanogo was poised to break out. And he’s been good so far, averaging 15 points and six rebounds per game. Another sophomore that has improved is 6-8 forward Alex Karaban, averaging 14.6 points and 5.7 rebounds, while shooting 80% from inside the arc so far this year.
UCONN’s best player this year has been senior Tristen Newton, who is in his second season with the Huskies after coming over from East Carolina. Newton does everything for Dan Hurley’s squad, putting up an insane stat line of 15.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists through seven games.
If you remember, Nick Timberlake nearly committed to the Huskies before coming to Kansas. The new piece UCONN brought in to fill that spot is Cam Spencer, who played last year at Rutgers and started his career at Loyola Maryland. Spencer is shooting a ridiculous 48% from three so far on his way to averaging 16.3 points, and in UCONN’s game against Mississippi Valley State, Spencer single-handedly shot 7-11 from three on his way to 25 points.
Matchups to Watch
There aren’t a ton of weaknesses with the defending champs. They are currently sixth in offensive efficiency and 10th in defense at KenPom, and like Kansas, excel at scoring off assists. Yet unlike Kansas, UCONN’s turnover percentage is 60th nationally.
The biggest weakness right now for the Huskies on offense is three-point shooting. UCONN attempts a three on 41.4% of its shots (88th most nationally) and yet is shooting just 30.9% from three (236th). The Huskies have made 55 of 178 threes and Spencer has made 22 of those, so if you take Spencer away, UCONN is shooting just 25% from three. We had a similar conversation before the Kentucky game about one player leading the way with shooting and then players like Rob Dillingham went off from deep. Can Kansas keep UCONN’s shooting struggles going on Friday?
The team that wins the paint will have a great chance to win the game, and that highlights the top individual matchup to watch in Clingan against Hunter Dickinson. Both Kansas and UCONN are in the top-15 in both two-point percentage and two-point defense, which makes for an incredible battle. Bill Self complained about his team’s lack of rebounding Tuesday against Eastern Illinois, and for good reason. The Huskies are an outstanding offensive rebounding team and also keep opponents off the boards. Kansas has to keep the rebounding numbers even and prevent too many second-chance points.
Prediction
UCONN has been the more impressive team of the two so far this year and are incredibly balanced and all-around skilled. The only “knock” on them on paper is they haven’t been overly challenged so far this year. Their toughest game was against a Texas team who, the night before, needed a buzzer-beater to escape Louisville.
If this game is on a neutral court or in Hartford, Connecticut, I’d probably side with the Huskies. But here’s the thing. Along with this being UCONN’s first away game of the year and the Allen Fieldhouse crowd going nuts, it has not proven wise to bet against Self at home against the best competition.
Since his arrival in 2003, Self’s teams are 10-1 against top-5 teams in Allen Fieldhouse. That’s a 91% winning percentage against the best of the best. I’ll type that again: Self is 10-1 against top-five teams at home. That’s absolutely absurd. And before you say to yourself, “That’s because Kansas is usually also in the top five,” KU has been the lower ranked team in eight of those matchups and was outside of the top five in six of those games and outside the top 10 in two.
The combination of Self and the Fieldhouse makes it almost impossible to win for most opponents. This year’s Jayhawks have proven they can beat really good teams (Kentucky and Tennessee being two examples) and it just feels wrong to bet against Kansas here, so I’ll take the Jayhawks to win a back-and-forth slugfest.
Kansas 78, UCONN 74
Record ATS: 4-3
Record Straight Up: 6-1
(Last game: Kansas 69, Tennessee 60)
