Pros and Cons of Oscar Tshiebwe Returning for Third Season at Kentucky
LEXINGTON, Ky. — When Oscar Tshiebwe announced that he was transferring to Kentucky from West Virginia, the hype was certainly less than palpable.
Big Blue Nation wasn't turned off, but there wasn't clear reason to be overly excited about the Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of the Congo native when looking at his career and numbers as a Mountaineer.
Little did BBN know.
In came the program's first unanimous National Player of the Year, as Tshiebwe took the college basketball world by storm during the 2021-22 season. Records were broken, hearts were stolen. Then, he opted to come back for a second season.
Not quite as impressive, though it was hard to top year one as a Wildcat. Tshiebwe settled for Second-Team All-American honors, instead. The downside comes in the postseason, as in his six games in March in the SEC or NCAA Tournament, Kentucky went 2-4, getting no further than the Round of 32 in the Big Dance.
So, it's over, right? Time for Tshiebwe to go rake in his lottery pick money from the NBA draft, right?
Not exactly. If oddsmakers had to create a betting line on the future of Tshiebwe's basketball career, the money would be on him turning pro. Other factors will play into his eventual decision, however.
Here are three overarching pros and cons for both Tshiebwe and Kentucky if he were to return for one more run as a Wildcat:
PRO: Welcoming a National Player of the Year back to your team sounds like a good idea
Let's get the obvious one out of the way. Tshiebwe has put together two stunning seasons. First, he averaged 17.4 points and 15.1 rebounds-per-game, then 16.5 points and 13.7 boards in year two.
If he were to tell head coach John Calipari he was ready to run it back again, it's hard to imagine there being any sort of pushback. We're talking about one of the best rebounders in the history of the game of basketball, here.
From a non-pessimistic perspective, another year under Tshiebwe's belt would only help both on and off the court. He only becomes a better scorer and better rebounder, if the latter is even possible.
...right?
CON: Fitting Tshiebwe into next season's team
You could argue that this point depends on other seniors who are also yet to make decisions on a return or departure, but when looking at potential Kentucky rosters for next season, is it easy to just slot him back in at the five spot?
In the same thought, say Tshiebwe did come back, how could you not slot him back in at the five spot?
Well, there's already Daimion Collins, Lance Ware and Ugonna Onyenso on the bench. Barring the transfer portal, those three will be back. There's also a certain 5-star center in Aaron Bradshaw that's making his way to Lexington very shorty, also. (I'll get into what a return would mean for them shortly.)
Tshiebwe blocked 55 shots in year one. Just 32 swats in year two. Rim protection is something that BBN is craving, and there's no reason to believe that he'll re-find a knack for blocking or grow a couple inches over the offseason.
Bradshaw is one of five freshmen in the 2023 class. He's one of four 5-stars. Can Calipari or any of the potential stars stomach a third season of "when in doubt, dump it down to Oscar," when DJ Wagner or Justin Edwards may be ready to erupt for 30 points of their own at any moment?
A seamless fit with a brand new group doesn't feel all that likely.
PRO: Final chance for Tshiebwe to evolve, take a stab at improving NBA draft stock
If you're finding Tshiebwe on any 2023 NBA draft boards, it's either projecting him as a very late second rounder, or talking about why he isn't shaping up to be an NBA player.
The old-school, bruising style may still have a place on some NBA rosters, but not for someone Tshiebwe's size. It's an ever-changing league that pays a high price for shooting, something Tshiebwe doesn't lack, but doesn't excel at, either.
There's clear potential for Tshiebwe's shot, though. For stretches this season, he was fairly consistent from letting it go around the free-throw line. Say he understood what he needed to do to try and improve his draft stock, I wouldn't rule out a successful adjustment. You and I both saw how reliant UK was on the midrange jumper this year.
That's just it, though. If you take Tshiebwe out of the paint and try a transformation, you're taking so much of what he's great at away. It's not to doubt that he wouldn't still be able to put up absurd rebounding numbers, but there would be a difference.
Maybe he would nip the ball-screen defense woes in the bud. Maybe the floor spacing wouldn't be an absolute calamity. Maybe his defense reaches a level that does help him carve out a role-player spot on a pro roster.
Maybe.
CON: Hurting the progression of Bradshaw and Onyenso
Calipari is high on Onyenso becoming a big a second-year success. So are 2024 NBA draft boards. If you look higher up those same draft boards, you'll find Bradshaw's name, too.
It's easy to assume that both would succeed and benefit more from Tshiebwe's departure, but let's be real; If all three are on the roster next season, Calipari simply won't be able to split minutes up in a way that would be satisfactory for all parties.
Get ready to hear "we gotta play Ugonna more," out of the mouth of the head coach, in that case.
Going back to rim protection, you'll get plenty with both youngsters. Bradshaw's jumper is intriguing. Onyenso's shear size and defensive ability grabs plenty of attention. Not to mention, what about Collins and Ware?
Depth is great and all, but it would feel more like clutter next season.
PRO: Name, Image and Likeness
Who's to say just how in-tune Tshiebwe is with where he stands in the eyes of NBA scouts and with his potential future. The man walks to the beat of God's drum.
One clear reason to return, simply from a business perspective, is the NIL money. He cashed in big time in the Bahamas back in August 2022, and eventually had his face spread across billboards, representing Morgan and Morgan, as well as Donatos. If there's a will, there's a way.
Entering the 2023 NCAA Tournament, his NIL valuation — according to On3 — was $915,000. That's no chump change. You won't find a safer human to market behind, either. It'll without question be mentioned to Tshiebwe via one of the many voices that will be in his ear as he contemplates his decision.
Money talks.
CON: Potentially damaging a legacy
Before I go any further, Tshiebwe is one of the best players of the Calipari era and will likely have his jersey hung in the rafters of Rupp Arena one day. It would take something drastic to change that.
If Tshiebwe were to return, there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't be able to produce big numbers again. But what if he doesn't?
What if he comes back and isn't able to be that imposing force in the paint anymore? What if another season of other teams prepping for him leads to even worse pick-and-roll defense? What if he comes back and doesn't mesh with a likely new-look team, causing a headache for everyone involved?
Groans of having enough of Tshiebwe trickled around social media and the basketball sphere as the season careened through ups and downs. It's no indictment on the lovable human being, but what if things on the court go sour again?
What if the magic of a 25-rebound game loses its luster, because it once again didn't equal a win? What if the constant talk of "fight" wears off? What if it already has?
It's all hypothetical, but the tone of voice that would surround opinions of Tshiebwe playing a third year at UK likely wouldn't be as enlightening and upbeat as they were a season ago.
He'll always have a spot in the record books, and the memories will be mostly fond, but what will BBN's lasting memory be of Tshiebwe if things go awry?
