Tiger Predictions: LSU Rolls Over Mississippi State, Avenging Blowout from Two Years Ago
No. 2 LSU travels to Starkville Friday to continue its quest for a perfect season against .500 Mississippi State. The Bulldogs, led by head coach Joe Moorhead, have been in an up and down spiral all season, one that has spiraled out of control in recent weeks.
Here's how we think this weekend will play out.
Score Prediction: LSU 42, Mississippi State 17
This one won't be particularly close as the odds have LSU as the -19 point favorites heading into Saturday, which seems a little low. This is a Bulldog team coming off a road loss to Tennessee last weekend, a Vols team that lost to Georgia State to open the season.
The Bulldogs are at an all-time low in the confidence department, losers of three of their last four games and giving up an average of 30 points per game in that span.
The No. 2 ranked Tigers on the other hand, arrive at Starkville with something to prove after being blown out two years ago in embarrassing fashion 37-7. There's no doubt that the team is completely different in practically every way, with only a few senior members on the team that were a part of that loss.
Still that kind of loss sticks with you as coach Ed Orgeron admitted as much Thursday, saying his team has been reminded constantly over the last week what happened two years back.
"No question and our leaders have been reminded of it, our players have been reminded of it," Orgeron said. "They'll be reminded again tomorrow night."
How the offense performs
With Mississippi State having one of the worst secondaries on the LSU schedule, expect more of the same from Joe Burrow and company. Burrow is four touchdowns away from holding the LSU single season record for touchdowns in a game.
It would take only an average day for the senior quarterback this season to accomplish that as he's thrown over four touchdowns in four of the six Tiger games thus far.
Another big question offensively is will the run game continue its dominance that it's showed the last two weeks. The Tigers have averaged 5.1 and 9.1 yards per carry over the last two contests, including over a Florida defense ranked in the top-30 in rush defense.
While it may be hard to repeat that 9.1 average, expect the running attack to continue to be explosive behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and freshmen John Emery and Tyrion Davis-Price.
Receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase are both two scores away from reaching the 10 touchdown mark on the season, which is incredible in its own right for one LSU receiver, let alone two. Expect one if not both to get to 10 touchdowns Saturday against the Bulldogs.
How the defense performs
On defense, the Tigers are finally healthy with no starters expected to be out of the lineup for the second consecutive week. That is both a blessing and a curse, particularly at outside linebacker.
LSU will rely heavily on K'Lavon Chaisson, who is coming off his best game of the year against Florida and is the Tiger's best pass rusher. The Tigers don't go with a ton of two outside linebacker sets which means less reps for Michael Divinity and Marcel Brooks.
Divinity led the team in sack a year ago but was moved to the inside towards the end of last year. With Jacob Phillips, Patrick Queen and Damone Clark all playing well inside, Orgeron made the decision to put Divinity back on the outside for the last two games and presumably moving forward.
It'll be interesting to see how the team will utilize Chaisson, Divinity and Brooks on Saturday and as the season progresses.
On the front line, Rashard Lawrence and Glen Logan will be available though Orgeron didn't say whether the pair would start. The Tiger's have been impressed with the play of Neil Farrell in their absence and senior Breiden Fehoko has always been a reliable, if not flashy starter.
Depth is the biggest thing LSU gets with the return of Lawrence and Logan and the Tigers will need all hands on deck with Auburn and Alabama right around the corner.
