What Does ESPN's Football Power Index Think of LSU's 2020 Revised SEC Schedule

When the SEC released its full 2020 schedule on Monday, the Tigers couldn't have asked for a much better draw. In terms of the two extra opponents the team will face as well as the order of the schedule, LSU received about as favorable a schedule as any team in the conference.

LSU will open with Mike Leach and Mississippi State visiting Tiger Stadium on Sept. 26, a matchup which LSU should be favored in.

"We have already gameplanned Mike Leach and his coordinator," Orgeron said. "I think it's a good schedule, any schedule would've been a good schedule for us and I'm just happy that we're playing."

The latest ESPN football power index has LSU ranked No. 6 in the country with a projected win-loss record of 7.9-2.4. The Tigers have a 13.9% chance to win the SEC and a 2.6% chance of going undefeated in 2020 according to the FPI metrics.

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes,” ESPN described.

Here are the percent projections for an LSU win in each of the 10 games in 2020:

Sept 26 vs Mississippi State: 96.4%

Oct 3 at Vanderbilt: 96.6%

Oct 10 vs Missouri: 95.1%

Oct 17 at Florida: 54.4%

Oct 24 vs South Carolina: 92%

Oct 31 at Auburn: 50.3%

Nov 14 vs Alabama: 42.4%

Nov 21 at Arkansas: 91.4%

Nov 28 at Texas A&M: 62.5%

Dec 5 vs Ole Miss: 91.7%

It's first notable to point out that the FPI isn't the strongest metric to use in-season, the best example of this being LSU finishing fourth in FPI after winning the national championship and going 15-0 in 2019. However, as a preseason indicator, it does give an interesting layout of how each team could finish.

With such a favorable schedule, it's not overly zealous to think the Tigers could go 9-1 in the 10-game season, though 8-2 or 7-3 is also a possibility. Breaking in some of the younger players on the roster will be an adjustment but with the Bulldogs, Vanderbilt and Missouri as the first three games on the schedule, adjusting to the speed of the SEC should be an easier transition for those players.

The Tigers need to spend the next few weeks finding replacements for veterans Neil Farrell, Justin Thomas and Kary Vincent, all of whom have left the team in the last two weeks. Cordale Flott and Elias Ricks are obvious candidates to watch in the secondary and keep an eye on Jaquelin Roy, Jacobian Guillory, TK McLendon and Ali Gaye up front as potential replacements for Farrell and Thomas.

"I think eventually he can be a tremendous pass rusher but for right now he's just getting back into shape," Orgeron said of McLendon on Tuesday. "I do believe that having a 4-3 defense and the way we're going to attack, the guy that I'm really impressed with is Ali Gaye. He had a great summer, he had a great day yesterday."

"Cordale [Flott] has always been a guy that we've depended on,” Stevens said Wednesday. “It's nothing new for him. Now, he's the clear starter, and we're expecting a lot from him."