Tiger Predictions: LSU Can't Keep Up With No. 1 Alabama and High Powered Offense
If there's one thing that LSU has going for it this weekend it's that the team has nothing to lose. At 3-4 the Tigers, while technically bowl eligible, are not playing for anything other than building momentum and confidence heading into 2021.
That allows the purple and gold to play with an aggressiveness and freedom that actually may be better for the players on the field. On the other side, No. 1 Alabama has everything to lose and while the Crimson Tide have proven to be the best team in the country all season, you can never tell what this matchup will ultimately come to.
Here are a few predictions ahead of Saturday's game:
Prediction: Alabama 41, LSU 13
LSU hasn't scored at home against the Crimson Tide since the 2014 season, a game that ended in heartbreak with the Tigers giving up a last minute touchdown to Blake Sims and the visiting Crimson Tide. The last time LSU played Alabama in Tiger Stadium, the program was in a very similar situation.
A struggling o-line, one of the best players on the roster missing for the first half (Devin White) and a roster riddled with inexperience in big moments. It was the most hyped up matchup in years with former players and a pregame atmosphere that ultimately was the best part of that Saturday evening.
No. 4 LSU went on to lose 29-0 in that game with first year quarterback Joe Burrow behind center, undoubtedly the low point of his LSU career. This 2020 LSU team has been mostly one of disappointment and there just isn't much going in the Tigers' favor as kickoff nears.
Wide receiver Terrace Marshall has opted out of the season, the offensive line is rife with inconsistency and the defense was just starting to find its footing and is now facing possibly the best offense in the SEC. Orgeron said Thursday that freshman TJ Finley will get the job but Max Johnson will also receive some playing time.
The loss of Marshall is significant but the LSU offense will find a way to put together a couple of scoring drives behind one of Johnson or Finley. The Tigers' defense has shown an ability to force turnovers this season so maybe a shortened field because of an Alabama mistake or two will help get the purple and gold in the endzone once or twice.
LSU will need to establish a No. 1 threat with Marshall gone and all signs point to Arik Gilbert as the clear favorite for that role. Freshmen Kayshon Boutte and Koy Moore as well as sophomore Jaray Jenkins will be in line for increased targets as well.
But it all comes back to the offensive line, execution and play calling. Orgeron said earlier this week that it would be a big week for the offensive line and offense as a whole to make corrections and according to Orgeron's statements Wednesday, there's been some positive progress.
"We need to put our players in better positions, call better plays, have answers to their blitzes. Too many free blitzes hitting our young quarterbacks," Orgeron said Monday. "Our execution has to be better on run blocking. We did not control their front or blitzes. We watched that yesterday, identified what went wrong. We came up with a lot of solutions. Today is going to be a big day on fixing what went wrong on offense."
The defense has shown significant improvement over the last two weeks but will face its toughest assignment with Heisman candidates Mac Jones, Najee Harris and Devonta Smith all having strong seasons. LSU held Arkansas and Texas A&M to a combined 2-of-26 on third down and has improved in the run game over the last two weeks.
But Harris and the Crimson Tide offensive line is another beast all together. The linebackers are filling the gaps and the defensive line is holding up and not getting pushed off the line of scrimmage. But Harris proved last year just how lethal he can be with his 190-yard performance in 2019.
Cornerback Derek Stingley has a bounce back performance against Devonta Smith after struggling last year, though finding an answer for John Metchie and the rest of the Crimson Tide arsenal will be tough sledding for the secondary. The man-to-man coverage has been improved but like the run defense, will face its true test with a Heisman candidate behind center.
In the end, the Alabama offense will be too much and the LSU offense will continue to struggle against one of the better defenses in the country. The loss of Marshall will prove significant against the top team in the country as the most likely outcome is lots of stalled drives because of third-and-long situations.
LSU loses in blowout fashion with the goal of just trying to find some consistency with the offense. As for the defense, proving it can get the high powered Alabama offense off the field will be the goal.
