Where Michigan Stands 62 Days Until Selection Sunday
With the Wolverines off until Friday's game at Iowa, let's take a step back and see where the Wolverines stands in the bigger picture.
For many people, college basketball is essentially a one-month sport -- March Madness. Now I'm a fan of the sport, so it starts for me in November. But there's no denying the prominent place the NCAA Tournament has on the American sports calendar each year. It could be the second-most popular annual sporting event behind only the Super Bowl.
Furthermore, my prediction today in my Good Michigan Morning video pertains to how the Wolverines may perform in this year's tournament, so the timing aligns.
KenPom
Michigan is currently No. 21 in KenPom's renowned analytics, which is exactly where it started the season on November 5th. KenPom predicts Michigan to lose at Iowa, win its next seven in a row, but then lose four of its final six for a 19-12 overall record. The bracket is so fluid this year that we'd probably have to see how the Big Ten Tournament plays out to even begin to project where that would seed the Wolverines in the NCAA Tournament. For example, Michigan could realistically finish with 12 top 50 teams even if it lost its first game in the Big Ten Tournament. How many 12-loss teams have that many quality wins? It's far more typical for 12-loss teams to be on the at-large berth bubble. One more KenPom trend to watch is this: since these analytics debuted in 2002, only one team has won the NCAA Tournament that wasn't in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Currently the Wolverines are 20th in offense, but just 42nd defensively.
NET Rankings
This is really the only poll that matters these days, because it's the analytic the NCAA uses to both select and seed the field come Selection Sunday. These use a combination of the old RPI, strength of schedule (wins and losses are placed in "quadrants" based on the strength of your opponents), and efficiency analytics. The Wolverines are currently 29th in the NET, and thus safely in the field. There are 12 Big Ten teams in the top 41 of the NET as of today, which means if today were Selection Sunday we'd see double-digit Big Ten teams in the field.
Bracketologies
While it's too early to look at these and take them seriously, just for fun here's where Michigan stands in these latest projections:
Joe Lunardi currently has the Wolverines the No. 5 seed in the East Region.
Jerry Palm currently as Michigan as a No. 5 seed as well, but in the Midwest.
NBC Sports has the same projection as Lunardi, so by now you get the sense there's a general consensus about Michigan's current standing.
