Analytics Tracker: Week 7 Statistical Deep Dive
Michigan’s 86-44 destruction of Presbyterian offered a much-needed confidence booster for a Maize and Blue squad coming off of losses in three of its last four games. The Wolverines’ lowest likelihood of victory during the contest was 99.2%, when the score was tied 0-0 to begin the game. By the second media timeout, U-M had built a 17-4 advantage that mine as well have been 117-4 over a PC squad whose 92.2 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency rating is 311th in the country.
At 2-10 and ranked 336th overall by KenPom, the Blue Hose are the lowest-rated team that Michigan has played this year from a statistical standpoint—an unfamiliar reprieve for a group just completed of a string of battles in which it played seven-consecutive teams inside the top 50.
Despite dropping a disappointing three of its five December contests after a scalding start, the fact remains that the Wolverines’ impressive 9-3 record has come against the 10th-hardest schedule in the country, according to KenPom. In 12 games this season, U-M has faced eight teams in the top 50, four in the top 25 and three in the top 10. During its 12-0 start a season ago, the Maize and Blue battled only three top 50 teams, with one being ranked in the top 25 and two in the top 10 at the time of the matchup.
In head coach Juwan Howard’s first season, Michigan is 5-3 against top 50 teams, 2-2 against top 25 teams and 1-2 against top 10 teams, with one of the losses being by a single point in overtime.
This breather will be brief, however, as the Wolverines face yet another gauntlet of games to open 2020. Following a Dec. 29 matchup against KenPom No. 255 UMass Lowell, U-M will face top 50 squads in eight of 10 games starting with a clash with No. 5 Michigan State in East Lansing Jan. 5. During this 10-game stretch, Howard and Co. take the court against the Spartans twice, host No. 6 Ohio State and battle three other teams currently in the top 50. KenPom predicts a 7-3 record for Michigan during this stretch, with losses at MSU, at No. 21 Iowa and at home against the Buckeyes.
Here is a look at other player and team-specific trends and advanced statistics using the KenPom model. If you are unfamiliar with KenPom and its metrics, you can read a quick primer here.
*To qualify for individual conference rankings, players must log between 40 percent and 60 percent of possible minutes played, depending on the metric.
Key Trends:
•Michigan’s 134.3 Adjusted Offensive Score and 41.4 Offensive Rebound Percentage (OR%) against Presbyterian were its second-highest score in each metric of the season—they amassed a 138.7 efficiency rating and 44.4 OR% against Iowa. Of U-M’s 53 shot attempts, 27 were from downtown (50.9%), marking the first time this season that Howard’s squad has attempted more three-pointers than two-point shots.
•The Wolverines stifling defense held the Blue Hose to an abysmal 68.7 Offensive Rating (ORtg) and 30.8 Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), both season lows for a Maize and Blue opponent this season. U-M has only surrendered an ORtg of 100.0 or better four times in 12 games, but three of these instances have come in the last four contests.
•Opposing teams have taken only 25.7% of their total field goal attempts from three-point range against Michigan, the third-lowest percentage in the country. The Wolverines’ defense is No. 21 in the country in limiting foes to just 27.6% shooting from three.
•U-M is allowing only 8.9 assists per game this season and opponents have assisted on just 34.1% of made field goals, the second lowest percentage in the country. The Maize and Blue are averaging 15.8 assists per contest, and have assisted on 54.2% of made baskets (9th Big Ten, 114th nationally).
•Michigan head coach Juwan Howard has been risk-averse in managing foul trouble early in games. According to KenPom’s 2-Foul Participation statistics, which is the percentage of time a starter with two fouls in the first half has been allowed to play, Wolverine starters with two fouls have played just 4.3% of available first-half minutes—more than 17% less than the 21.7% national average.
•Junior forward Isaiah Livers, who left the victory over Presbyterian with a strained muscle, continues to set the Maize and Blue standard for offensive efficiency this season and would be a costly loss if out for any period of time. He paces the Wolverines with a 122.5 ORtg (8th Big Ten), 63.6 eFG% (3rd Big Ten), and is hitting 50.0% of his shots from three-point range (3rd Big Ten). He also led Michigan in these same categories as a sophomore.
Starting 5
Point Guard: Senior Zavier Simpson
Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Averages): 11.4 points, 8.8 assists, 4.3 rebounds
Simpson’s four shot attempts against Presbyterian tied his season-low—he averaged 10.4 field goal tries over his last five games. Simpson’s single three-point make was his third over the last five games, a stretch in which he has hit 3 of 9 (33.3 %) shots from beyond the arc. Prior to this slump, he was shooting 50.0% from deep on the season.
Shooting Guard: Junior Eli Brooks
Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Averages): 11.3 points, 2.5 assists, 3.2 rebounds
With 16 points, a 156 ORtg, a 61.8 eFG%, three steals, two assists and no turnovers, Brooks earned KenPom game MVP honors for a team-best third time this season. It was also his third game with at least three three-point makes, and the second committing zero turnovers.
Small Forward: Junior Isaiah Livers
Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Averages): 13.6 points, 1.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds
As a sophomore, Livers did an outstanding job of protecting the basketball with a 11.3 Turnover Rate (TORate) that was seventh best in the Big Ten. Although his TORate has elevated to 12.5 as a junior, it still places him 19th in the league.
Power Forward: Freshman Franz Wagner
Traditional Stat Line: 8.8 points, 0.5 assists, 3.5 rebounds
With three points and an 81 ORtg against Presbyterian, Wagner still hasn’t strung together consecutive games of either double-digit scoring or an ORtg of 100.0 or better this season. With his 33% three-point shooting performance, he has now shot below 35% from beyond the arc in six of eight games this season.
Center: Senior Jon Teske
Traditional Stat Line: 13.5 points, 0.9 assists, 8.4 rebounds
Teske’s 66.7 eFG% against Presbyterian was his seventh game with an eFG% of 55.0 or better this season, and his fifth of at least 60.0. Through 12 games, Teske ranks seventh in the Big Ten in both eFG% (58.2) and 2P% (63.3%).
Off the Bench (Played in at least 10 percent of teams total minutes)
Sophomore Guard David DeJulius
Traditional Stat Line: 8.3 points, 1.2 assists, 2.7 rebounds
DeJulius registered a career-best 167 ORtg against PC, contributing 12 points despite a 14 Percentage of Possession Used (%Poss) score. His 75.0 eFG% in the win bumped him up to 70.5 in the metric over his last three games.
Sophomore Forward Brandon Johns Jr.:
Traditional Stat Line: 4.1 points, 0.4 assists, 4.5 rebounds
Johns did not see action against the Blue Hose due to an illness. On the season, he has played 32.6% of possible minutes, a 24.7% increase from a year ago, and his 4.9 Block Percentage (BLK%) is 2.3% higher than his freshman campaign.
Sophomore Center/Forward Colin Castleton:
Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Average): 4.3 points, 0.3 assists, 2.8 rebounds
Castleton saw 22 minutes against Presbyterian, three more minutes than in his last three games combined. Despite going 0-2 from the field, he logged a 141 ORtg based primarily on his three offensive rebounds and eight free-throw attempts, of which he made six (75.0%).
Sophomore guard Adrien Nunez:
Traditional Stat Line (Per Game Average): 2.0 points, 0.1 assists, 0.0 rebounds
Nunez fouled out in 13 minutes against the Blue Hose, and his 4.5 fouls committed per 40 minutes is the highest on the team. His two made field goals were his first successful scoring efforts since Nov. 27.
KenPom Most Frequent Lineup Combinations (last five games):
1. Simpson, Brooks, Livers, Wagner, Teske — 30.5%
2. Simpson, DeJulius, Livers, Wagner, Teske — 7.4%
3. Simpson, Brooks, Livers, Wagner, Castleton — 4.1%
4. Simpson, DeJulius, Livers, Johns, Teske — 3.6%
5. Simpson, DeJulius, Brooks, Livers, Teske — 3.0%
KenPom Depth Chart (last five games):
PG: Simpson (82%), Brooks (16%)
SG: DeJulius (47%), Brooks (46%)
SF: Livers (63%), Brooks (12%), Wagner (12%), Nunez (9%)
PF: Wagner (54%), Johns (23%), Castleton (10%), Livers (7%)
C: Teske (66%), Castleton (15%), Davis (13%), Johns (5%)
What statistic or trend sticks out to you the most? Comment below!!!
