NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL: WEEK 1 TIPS

It seems like an eternity since the final week of the 2010 season, but rejoice, the fantasy offseason is over. Now that the games matter, there are a few general things that every player should be doing in week 1. First of all, although a win this week would be nice, it may not be the most important thing to come out of this week. What fantasy owners should really be paying attention to are any developing trends of this fantasy season. The fastest course to a league championship is jumping on the “out-of-nowhere” players that turn into studs. Of course, you shouldn’t overreact to a great performance, nor should you dump guys because of one bad game. However, if you see a guy that you think could break out have a big week in his opener, pick him up. Or better yet, if he’s already on your roster, try to flip him for an established player to an overeager owner. Now let’s get to the tips:

Quarterback

BEST:    Eli Manning, NYG

-I feel like I’m taking a risk in having Eli as the best QB to start for week 1, but I just couldn’t resist. He has a very soft matchup against a weak Redskins’ secondary. As a unit last season the ‘Skins gave up an average of 261.7 yards per game through the air, good enough for second worse in the league. However, that’s not the real reason I feel so strongly about Eli having a big week to open the year. Last season the Redskins only managed to intercept opposing quarterbacks 14 times (4 of which came gift wrapped by Jay Cutler), tied for 6th worst in the league. As Eli’s primary weakness is throwing the ball to the wrong colored jerseys, I have a feeling that Eli should be a great start for your fantasy team to begin the season. I think he’ll go for around 300 yards, with 2 scores and 1 interception at worst.

WORST:Â Tony Romo, DAL

-Don’t get me wrong, I think Romo will be a great quarterback this season. I just don’t think he’ll have as much success this week as he will other weeks. Sure, it would be easy to pick a guy like Donovan McNabb for my “worst” pick, but that would be just plain lazy on my part.  Nobody is starting that guy, and if they are, I can’t help them. It was hard to pick either a best or worst this week, as nearly all top-flight quarterbacks are facing at least above-average competition. Romo is coming off a devastating injury and faces a very tough defense in week one. He’ll be fine as the year progresses, but this week probably won’t be a dominating performance. Look for him to throw for about 200 yards, one score and 2 interceptions as a best-case scenario.

Running Back

BEST:   Arian Foster, HOU

-Foster had his coming out party against the Colts last year, a defense which gave up a less than stellar 127 yards per game on the ground last season. The Colts may have been bad against everyone last season, but they were even worse against Foster. In two games against the Colts last season Foster averaged 202.5 total (rushing and receiving) yards per game, and also averaged 2 touchdowns per contest against Indy. I’m sure you’ll be starting Foster every week regardless of his matchup, but this week he should be an absolute fantasy monster. Expect him to get around 125 yards rushing, 60 yards receiving, and score at least once.

WORST:Â Ray Rice, BAL

-He’s a great back, and should be fine this year, but I think he’ll have a rough day against the staunch Steelers’ defense. When the Steelers have been healthy on defense they’ve bottled up Rice quite easily. In two games last season Rice rushed 20 yards, and 32 yards, and in those games also only had 9 and 18 yards receiving respectively. In fact, those two performances were by far his worst games of the 2010 campaign. You may be thinking that those games were aberrations, after all, he torched the Steelers in 2009. There are two problems with that thinking. First, the Steelers weren’t even close to healthy in 2009, and coming into this season they appear to be 100%. Second, Rice got to face the Steelers a 3rd time in the playoffs last season. In the cold weather, the running game should have been the primary means of attack for the Ravens. However, Rice still only ended up with 32 yards on 12 carries. He should only have about 60 total yards this week, and will struggle to find the end zone. Don’t freak out this week, he’ll be fine as the season goes on, he just doesn’t have a good matchup this week.

Wide Receiver

BEST:   Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

-Last season, with pathetic quarterbacks throwing him the ball last season Fitz torched the Panthers for 9 catches and 125 yards. This year, if Kevin Kolb is even a remote improvement at quarterback, I think his numbers will be even better against the Panthers’ pathetic defense. Fitzgerald should be able to use his size, speed, and exceptional hands to make it a long day forCarolina. Look for him to rack up anywhere between 100 and 150 yards receiving and should find the end zone. I know 150 yards is a very high number, but I truly expect huge things from Fitzgerald this week.

WORST:Â Percy Harvin, MIN

-Combine a new quarterback, who happens to be old and has clearly lost a step, throwing him the ball with facing off against one of the top defenses in the league last season (San Diego), and you have a recipe for week 1 disaster. Not only do we have no clue whether or not McNabb will be able to get the ball to his receivers, we have even less clue whether or not he’ll make Harvin his number 1 choice. Harvin is certainly the most talented receiver on the Vikings, but his matchup this week makes him a fantasy liability. I like his potential going forward this season, even with McNabb under center, but this week his numbers should be down. I expect around 3 catches for 40 yards and no scores.

Tight End

BEST:    Greg Olsen, CAR

-I said in the preseason that I thought Olsen’s value should skyrocket now that he’s outside of Mike Martz’s offense. Arizonawas terrible against the pass last season, and a rookie quarterback should rely heavily on Olsen as his security blanket this week. Olsen is one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL, and was woefully underutilized during his time inChicago. I don’t think that’s going to happen this year. He should be a primary target everywhere on the field, especially in the red zone. Look for Olsen to compile about 80-100 yards and find his way into the end zone.

WORST:Â Brandon Pettigrew, DET

-He’s a solid starter most weeks as he’s big, a solid leaper, and if he can hang on to the ball should be a good red zone target. Problem is, this week he’s facing a Buccaneers team that was good against the pass last season. In fact, they only gave up an average of 201 yards per game in 2010. As most of those yards will probably go to Calvin Johnson, I would recommend finding a better option than Pettigrew if you have him. If you don’t, expect production along the lines of 30 yards receiving and no touchdowns.

Defense

BEST:    Atlanta Falcons

-The way you win with a fantasy defense is through sacks and turnovers. Both of those are something the Chicago Bears like to hand to opposing defenses in bunches. Jay Cutler was sacked 52 times last season, and the Bears as a team turned the ball over 31 times in 2010. That’s an average of 3.25 sacks and a little less than 2 turnovers per game. Atlantahas a very good pass rush, so they should make Cutler’s life difficult in week 1. The Falcons may give up some points (I expect the Bears to score between 17 and 24 points), but I think they’ll sack Cutler at least 3 times, and should get at least 1 turnover, and possibly 2. Additionally, the Falcons have a solid return game, so a touchdown from that phase of the game isn’t out of the realm of possibility either. If you have the Falcons they should be a great start this week.

WORST: Miami Dolphins

-They’re actually a pretty solid defense, they were top 10 last season in total yards allowed, but they won’t have an easy time this week. In two games againstNew Englandin 2010 the Dolphins gave up 41 and 38 points. The Patriots should be just as good on offense this season, and I find it hard to believe that the Dolphins will be able to solve their problems with the Pats in just one year. Don’t start the Dolphins this week if you have any other viable options.

SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

-Kerry Collins, IND

This is probably better labeled as a deep sleeper. Collins isn’t anything special, but the weapons around him sure as heck are. If he can get the ball into the hands of guys like Wayne, Collie, Garcon, and Clark they should be able to do most of the work for him. Assuming all of the reports about Peyton Manning aren’t a smoke screen, Collins could actually be a nice sneaky play this week. He’s a high risk, as he hasn’t had a lot of practice time to get the Colt’s offense down-pat, but I think he’s worth playing for someone who either drafted Peyton Manning or neglected quarterback for too long on draft day. He could go for 300 yards and 3 scores or he could go for 150 yards and 3 picks. That’s why he’s a sleeper and not a sure thing.

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