NFL FANTASY FOOTBALL: WEEK 2 TIPS

So, I suppose I feel bad for Arian Foster owners this week. Most indications going into Sunday seemed mostly positive that he’d suit up, and it was a

So, I suppose I feel bad for Arian Foster owners this week. Most indications going into Sunday seemed mostly positive that he’d suit up, and it was a fantastic matchup for him. But lo and behold he ends up sitting out the game and the high powered Texans offense scored 34 points, with the other running backs on the team looking pretty darn good. I don’t think there’s any reason to worry just yet that he’s in danger of becoming a committee back, it was really just more than a minor annoyance for those owners. Especially if they didn’t have Foster’s handcuffs. Now lets move on to week 2:

Quarterback

BEST:    Aaron Rodgers, GB

-Rodgers looked like a world beater last week, throwing for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns, all while not even coming particularly close to throwing an interception. This week he gets a Carolina Panthers team that gave up 309 yards and 2 touchdowns to Kevin Kolb. Rodgers absolutely shredded a less than stellar defense in the Saints, and that defense is a significant step up from what the Panthers have to offer. Rodgers pinpoint accuracy and strong arm should give Carolinafits all day, and I expect him to throw for even better numbers than what he put up against the Saints in week 1. Like every week, start him with confidence.

WORST:Â Cam Newton, CAR

-Some of you may not need to be told this, but for novice fantasy players out there I feel compelled to talk aboutNewtonthis week. There are a few reasons why you shouldn’t buy intoNewton’s hype just yet. First, rookie quarterbacks are notorious for being roller coaster rides. Anyone who is starting as a rookie certainly has some amount of talent and playmaking ability, and there is no doubt thatNewtonhas both of those. However, what these rookies generally don’t possess is a true grasp on the speed and complexity of the NFL game. This often leads to incongruous results from week to week. Against teams where a rookie can take advantage of his athletic ability he will often have a better game than against fundamentally sound defenses. Newtonis facing one of those sound defenses this week in the Packers. Second, rookie quarterbacks are often very prone to making mistakes. This will killNewtonagainst what is possibly the most opportunistic defense in the NFL. Finally, a rookie’s best game is often his first one because teams don’t have any film to study on that player. Once teams actually get a look at what kinds of things that player likes to do at the NFL level they can gameplan accordingly, and the stats tend to drop off. That should be the case this week especially, as there are few defensive coordinators in the league better at drawing up a defensive gameplan than Dom Capers. I know this has been a long explanation, but if you just skimmed the last part I’ll sum it up nicely for you. If you play Cam Newton this week thinking that you’re being clever, you’re just over-thinking things. Start someone else.

Running Back

BEST:   Michael Turner, ATL

-Let’s chalk this one up in the “hunch” category. The Eagles linebackers are average, and I have a feeling that the Falcons were stung a bit by the butt whupping they were handed by the Bears in week 1. The Eagles gave up an average of 5.9 yards per carry against the Rams last week. Also, if you take out a sack of Sam Bradford for -15 yards they gave up an abysmal 6.76 yards per carry. What’s worse, these yards were given up with superstar Steven Jackson only carrying the ball twice. Now, there is of course reason for caution here. Turner lost a fumble last week, only got 10 carries, looked relatively slow last week, and has averaged a paltry 3.2 yards per carry in 2 previous games against the Eagles. Additionally, it’s possible that the Eagles woes stopping the run last week had to do with their reconstructed defensive line having not gelled just yet. Either way, I expect Turner to top the 100 yard mark and find the end zone at least once as the Falcons get back on track and beat the “Dream Team.”

WORST:Â Chris Johnson, TEN

-Yup, I said it. Johnson looked pathetic last week, and I honestly think the hold out has, and will continue to, hurt him. He only managed 24 yards against a less-than-powerfulJacksonvillefront 7. Now this week he gets the Baltimore Ravens.  That sure doesn’t sound like the type of team you want to face to get yourself back on track. It’s entirely possible that Johnson and his immense talent could overcome this bad matchup and slow start, especially if he manages to break off a big play or two like everyone knows that he can. Unfortunately for his owners, I just don’t see it happening. I think Johnson has a ceiling of 90 yards and a score this week, and a floor of 45 yards and no scores.

Wide Receiver

BEST:   Calvin Johnson, DET

-This one is a no-brainer. Johnson looked like a beast last week. He made tough catch after tough catch while going for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has an even better matchup this week as he takes on a Chiefs team that just gave up 4 touchdown passes to Bills’ QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if Johnson explodes for 10 catches, 150 yards, and 2 touchdowns this week. Look for very big things from Megatron in Week 2 if he stays on the field the entire game. Of course, he yet again has a nagging injury issue leading up to Sunday, so that’s something to keep an eye on. However, if you drafted Johnson you just have to expect that kind of uncertainty.

WORST:Â Steve Smith, CAR

-This one goes hand in hand with my analysis of Cam Newton. All the problems that follow a rookie QB, unfortunately, get transferred to the players catching his passes. It’s a near-guarantee that Smith should see plenty of targets, but the question really will be if he’s open for those targets. I think there will be too many times that Newton will make a big mistake for Smith to be a truly viable first option this week. His big play potential means you shouldn’t bench him, because he could take any completion and get it into the end zone, but I just wouldn’t expect huge production in week 2. I think he’ll probably have about 60 receiving yards, and owners should be ecstatic if he finds the end zone.

Tight End

BEST:   Jason Witten, DAL

-Wittenlooked like a beast against a tough Jets’ defense last Sunday, and this week he faces a 49ers team that despite not giving up very many yards to the Seahawks, really didn’t look particularly good to anybody watching the game with a critical eye. I thinkWittenwill actually top his stellar numbers from last week. This is especially the case, as I think he has something to prove. Some members of the media faulted him for not making it into the end zone when the only player he had to beat was Jim Leonard who was at a distinct size disadvantage toWitten. Whether these criticisms are fair or not is irrelevant. I thinkWittencomes out on fire and punishes the 49ers all day. Look for him to rack up more than 100 yards and find the end zone this week.

WORST:Â Zach Miller, SEA

-Yikes! How can the Seahawks target Miller, who is probably their best offensive weapon, only 4 times against the 49ers? I have a bad feeling that Tavaris Jackson isn’t terribly interested in finding his talented tight end, and this could be a long year for Miller owners who were excited that he finally had found his way out of Oakland. Who knows though, maybe it was just a matchup problem. Who does he have this week? Can anyone tell me? Wait….he has the Steelers? Who are angry because they just got thumped by their rival, the Ravens? Ouch…..

Defense

BEST:    Detroit Lions

-The Chiefs offense didn’t look in sync against the lowly Bills. What do you think is going to happen against the Lions’ nasty front 4? I don’t know if the Lions will get many turnovers against the Chiefs, but I have a feeling they will get a ton of sacks. Expect the Lions to give up anywhere between 14 and 24 points, and sack Matt Cassel anywhere between 3 to 5 times. Additionally, any turnovers that this kind of pressure may create should be considered a nice bonus for any Lions defense owners out there.

WORST: San Diego Chargers

-They’re playing Tom Brady and the Patriots. Need I say more? The Chargers are actually a very good defense, and could cause some problems for the Pats. However, I just don’t trust them enough to recommend them this week. If you have another viable option I’d suggest at least considering benchingSan Diegofor week 2. Consider this a cautionary “worst,” not a sure thing.

SLEEPER OF THE WEEK

-Rex Grossman, WAS

Well, what do ya know? Rex actually looked, dare I say it, good last week! This week he’s facing off against a defense that is coming off of giving up 422 yards to a rookie. I have a feeling that Grossman won’t quite match that total, but numbers in line with his against an injury ravaged Giants team last week certainly aren’t out of the question. If he’s still on his game he could end up with more than 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Of course, he could transform back into who he was in Chicago and cost the Redskins a game they should win. He’s a worthy play, especially for those who drafted Peyton Manning, but isn’t a sure thing just yet.

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