Spartan Nation Fantasy Football Expert: QUARTERBACK RANKINGS

 We’ve finally made it, everybody’s (except Hondo, who would include offensive linemen on his fantasy team if he could just figure out how to give them

 

We’ve finally made it, everybody’s (except Hondo, who would include offensive linemen on his fantasy team if he could just figure out how to give them points) favorite position in football: the quarterbacks. For being arguably the most important single position in football, quarterbacks were often ignored in fantasy circles. Years ago it was conventional wisdom that every team in the league should be able to find a productive QB, even if you wait until the 6th or 7th round.

 

           However, all of that started to change in 2004 when Peyton Manning smashed the record books by throwing for 49 touchdown passes. From then on it has been standard practice for at least one quarterback to be drafted in the first round, and with all of the elite passers being snatched up before the end of the 4th round at the latest. This year is no different, with as many as five quarterbacks who should be picked in the first three rounds.

 

           However, as with other positions you must look at your league’s scoring system for quarterbacks prior to drafting them. In many leagues passing touchdowns are only worth 4 points instead of the standard 6 points for rushing and receiving touchdowns. If your league only gives 4 points for passing touchdowns I wouldn’t recommend drafting a QB in the first round. You’d be better off waiting until the 3rd or 4th round, that way you’ll be able to stock up on positions which will earn more points for their scores. Enough general advice, let’s move on to the rankings:

 

1. Drew Brees, NO: Brees has earned this top spot. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards each of the last 4 years, and has thrown for more than 25 touchdowns 5 of the last 6 years. Then factor in that he plays in a pass happy offense in New Orleans, has a ton of weapons at his disposal, and will get more opportunities to throw downfield than most other quarterbacks in the NFL, Brees should absolutely be the first quarterback off of your fantasy draft board. 

 

2. Peyton Manning, IND: Usually when you call a guy “Mr. Consistency” you think of a guy who produces adequately year in and year out. Well, Manning is a “Mr. Consistency” who puts up monster numbers year in and year out. In his 12 year career Manning has never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards. His touchdown numbers aren’t necessarily as flashy as what fans generally expect, he’s only thrown for 30 or more touchdowns 5 times, but he’s also never thrown for fewer than 26 touchdowns. So essentially you can expect about 3,800 yards and 27 touchdowns. He may not end the year as the second highest scoring quarterback, but you know he won’t crash through the floor, so he deserves to be the second QB drafted.

 

3. Aaron Rodgers, GB: In two seasons as the starter in Green Bay, Rodgers has been an absolute beast.  He’s thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of those years, and has thrown for 28 and 30 touchdowns respectively. Rodgers also led all QBs in rushing last season, a nice bonus for his fantasy owners. However, it’s well documented that Rodgers has a tendency to hold on to the football too long. This causes him to throw very few interceptions, only 7 last season, but also means he’s going to take more sacks than other passers. If your league penalizes quarterbacks for sacks, Rodgers probably should slide a few spots lower on your list.

 

4. Tom Brady, NE: Brady just wins games, but he isn’t a starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, so wins don’t give you any fantasy points. Brady is essentially Peyton Manning Light when it comes to fantasy football. Since becoming a starter in 2001 he has been remarkably consistent. However, without his absolutely monster 2007 though, Brady has been a good fantasy quarterback, but not a fantastic one, having never thrown for more than 30 scores prior to 2007 nor after. But, with Brady you know you’re going to get good production with very few bad games. He won’t win a championship for you on his own, but he certainly won’t lose you any games. If you can get Brady in the 3rd round take him and don’t look back.

 

5. Philip Rivers, SD: I’d feel a lot more confident about this ranking if Vincent Jackson would get his butt into camp. However, Rivers was very productive last year, throwing for over 4,000 yards and racking up 28 touchdowns. Even more important, he averaged an impressive 8.8 yards per attempt last year, which lead the league. The biggest problem for Rivers this year may be the questions the Chargers have in the running game. If San Diego fails on the ground, teams will feel free to stay in nickel and dime packages in order to stop the pass. However, I think the Chargers will be fine, and Rivers should match his production from last year.

 

6. Matt Schaub, HOU: The knock on Schaub going into last year was that he was injury prone. Well he managed to play all 16 games last year and showed exactly what he could do given a full season. Schaub went off for a monsterous 4,770 yards. He also managed to toss 29 touchdowns in the first season which he managed to avoid injury. I fully expect Schaub to at least come close to these numbers, especially considering he gets to throw the ball to the best receiver in the game, Andre Johnson. Keep in mind that Schaub has had quite a few injuries in his past when drafting him, but if he stays healthy expect him to be a great fantasy quarterback.

 

7. Brett Favre, MIN: Lets get this out of the way first, I think Favre is coming back, so I do not drop him at all based on the “will he – won’t he” soap opera. Favre may be a good value pick, as he’ll probably be available into the 5th round or later. However, don’t expect production like last year. Favre is still Favre, and I find it hard to believe he can go another 16 games with only throwing 7 interceptions when his previous career low over a 16 game season was 13. I expect Favre’s stat line this year to be around 3,700 yards, 28 TDs, and 15 INT.  Darn good production for a guy you can probably grab after having filled both of your running back slots and two of your wide receiver slots.

 

8. Tony Romo, DAL: I don’t like Romo nearly as much as the rest of the country, but that isn’t to say I don’t think he’ll do well this year. Don’t get me wrong, he has been very good since becoming the starter in Dallas, but some publications have ranked as high as the number 4 quarterback. I would call Romo the last of the “elite” quarterbacks this year, and he’ll probably get you at least 3,800 yards and 27 TDs. If you get to a point where only one of these top 8 guys are available, and you still haven’t snagged your quarterback, make sure you pick him up as soon as possible. The drop off after Romo is incredibly steep, and could mean the difference in a championship and an early playoff exit.

 

9. Jay Cutler, CHI: He’s throws way too many picks and from all accounts is kind of a jerk, but if Mike Martz can turn John Kitna into a viable fantasy quarterback I have to believe he can do the same for Cutler. Cutler threw a laughable 26 INTs last year, often displaying the decision making ability of a high school quarterback. However, I think he’ll be able to improve upon that this year. I think Cutler is going to rack up the yards this year, and shouldn’t disappoint too much in the touchdown department either, probably throwing around 25 scores. He’ll still throw his fair share of balls to the other team, my guess is about 18 of them, but he should throw for enough yards to warrant starting in your fantasy league after the elite guys have come off the board.

 

10. Joe Flacco, BAL: Flacco took a significant step forward last year, improving his stat line from 2,971 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2008 to 3,613 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2009. He did that all while managing to throw only 12 picks each of those seasons. I think the addition of Anquan Boldin will give Flacco just enough juice to keep his yardage numbers steady this year while adding to his touchdown total. I see about 3,600 yards and 24 scores from Flacco this year, with the potential to push those numbers even higher if he cures the indecisiveness he showed late last year. For that reason Flacco is my biggest quarterback sleeper this year, as he will likely fall deep into most drafts.

 

11. Eli Manning, NYG: Want to know a little secret? Eli wasn’t as bad as advertised last year. Peyton’s little brother, amid a sea of bad press surrounding the Giants, threw for over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2009. However, I can’t recommend Eli any higher than the 11th slot because of what happened to the Giants late in the season last year. The team appeared to just plain quit, and that speaks to the Eli’s leadership. If the Giants hit the skids around week 4 this year, instead of week 14 like in 2009, and the team gives up that could severely hamper Eli’s production from a fantasy standpoint. Consider Eli a moderate risk that could turn into a decent reward if you pick him up late in your fantasy draft.

 

12. Donovan McNabb, WAS: Did all fantasy prognosticators suddenly become Philly fans? Why is there so much hate for McNabb going around these days? Sure, he has a knack for missing at least 1 game a year. But when he plays he’s good for some consistent production with very few costly mistakes. McNabb isn’t going to be winning fantasy games on his own like he did in the prime of his career, but he certainly should be starting in all fantasy leagues. He has enough weapons in Washington to match his stat line of 3,500 yards and 22 scores from last year, and may come as a great value in fantasy drafts. You can probably pick up McNabb after filling up all of your WR, RB, and maybe even TE positions. If he puts up numbers similar to last year, then this strategy may lead you to a fantasy championship.

 

13. Chad Henne, MIA: I know people are going to call me crazy for this one, but what he did at the end of last year has me very excited from a fantasy standpoint. He certainly never set the world on fire after taking over for an injured Chad Pennington, but he was able to complete more than 60% of his passes throwing to a bunch of relative no-namers. Now you add Brandon Marshall to the mix, a wide receiver who made Kyle Orton a viable fantasy commodity, and you have the recipe for big improvement from the former Wolverine.

 

14. Matt Ryan, ATL: The hype surrounding Ryan caused him to be drafted way too high last year. Sure, he took a step backward as far as yardage goes, but he improved the number of touchdowns he threw by 6 while only throwing 3 more interceptions than in his rookie campaign. I think Ryan will probably be good for about 3,200 yards, 25 TDs, and 15 picks. Not really starter material, but he’ll make a nice injury or bye week option for any fantasy team.

 

15. Kevin Kolb, PHI: You remember that Rodgers guy that I ranked at #3? Well Kolb is stepping into a hornets’ nest just like Rodgers did in his first season as a starter. Kolb performed admirably in fill-in duty last season, and now that he’s the full time starter he should at least be worth a look in fantasy leagues. He has plenty of weapons around him with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. He’ll probably make his fair share of mistakes in his first year as a starter, but the potential is there for him to have a big year, so he comes in to our rankings as a high end fantasy backup.

 

 

JUST MISSED THE CUT

 

-Matt Stafford, DET: The talent appears to be there, the weapons are there, but the offensive line isn’t. He’ll probably spend more time on his back than upright this season.

 

-Mark Sanchez, NYJ: He got more hype than he deserved last year, but he also has a bunch of weapons to throw to.  He’s a difficult one to predict this season, but I’m confident in saying he’s not a top 15 guy.

 

 

THE “DON’T DRAFT ME” GUYS

 

-Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: You just can’t afford to have your starting fantasy QB suspended for 4 weeks. Plus, his stats just aren’t that spectacular

 

-Vince Young, TEN: Let the hype machine spin up around VY again. The guy has a terrible deep ball, which is a recipe for disaster for a fantasy QB.

 

-David Garrard, JAC: If you’ve seen him play, you understand why nobody goes to Jaguars games. For that matter.....zzzzzzzzzzz.......oh sorry, just thinking of his play bored me to sleep.