Spartan Nation Fantasy Football: Ranking the RBs

 This week we’ll be ranking the top running backs in fantasy football. Running back is arguably the most important position in fantasy football. This

 

This week we’ll be ranking the top running backs in fantasy football. Running back is arguably the most important position in fantasy football. This has become amplified in recent years with the popularity of “running back by committee” systems throughout the NFL. It is vitally important that, if at all possible, you get at least one running back who will average 18 to 20 carries per game to ensure consistent production from that position from week to week. You could survive by 2 starting backs who are in a committee situation, but those types of backs depend far too much on getting the goal line carries from week to week. That type of inconsistency could kill your fantasy chances if your back doesn’t happen to see many carries once the fantasy playoffs roll around.

 

           There are also a few things you should remember when drafting your running back. First, make sure you check your league’s scoring system. Many leagues give points for receptions, and not just receiving yards. This may skew your rankings in favor of backs like Frank Gore who tend to catch a large number of passes. Second, if you value your sanity, try to steer clear of Patriots’ running backs. Bill Belichick has a nasty habit of giving a different running back the majority of the carries each week. The Patriots’ running backs tend to produce quite well, but guessing which one will get the bulk of the carries is nearly impossible, and often leads to next to no points from the back you chose to start that week. Finally, make sure you have a back-up plan. Running back is a brutal position, and you have to expect some injuries to bite your guys. If you don’t have a solid back-up you could be in for quite a few losses. You can either draft a talented backup of one of your starters, or you could opt for a starting running back on another team. Either way, just make sure you aren’t caught with your pants down if and when your guy goes down.

 

           Now, on to the rankings:

 

1. Chris Johnson, TEN: He has a new deal and is going to be in camp, so all the worries that surrounded last year’s top back have disappeared. Johnson averaged an amazing 5.6 yards per carry last year on his way to a 2,000 yard season. But what’s even more amazing about Johnson is his big play ability. He had 7 touchdowns last year of 50 yards or more. To put that in perspective, almost half of his 16 total touchdowns last year came from 50 yards or more. Is he likely to break through for 2,000 yards again? Probably not. But will he be the top fantasy running back this year? I sure think so.

 

2. Adrian Peterson, MIN: How good was Chris Johnson last year that he was able to bump Peterson down to the second best RB this year? However, I’m seeing a fair number of fantasy experts who have ranked Peterson as low as 4th. I’m sure they’re doing so because of his fumble issues last year, but I’m here to tell you, those experts are insane. They seem to forget that Peterson rushed for nearly 1,400 yards last year while racking up an incredible 18 touchdowns. Those stats more than make up for the points you may lose if he coughs up the ball. Besides, Minnesota has shown no indication that they’re losing confidence in AP due to his butter fingers. If Peterson falls anywhere below the second pick in your draft, he fell WAY too far. If he solves the fumble problems he and Chris Johnson will be 1 and 1a this year for fantasy running backs.

 

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC:   OK, it’s time to dispel a myth. MJD is not small, he weighs 208 pounds which puts him exactly in the middle of Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson as far as size goes. He proved last year that he could handle the punishment of being “the guy” in Jacksonville on the way to almost 1,400 yards and 16 total touchdowns. He is unquestionably the focal point of the Jacksonville offense, and should continue to see regular touches every week. That should lead to production similar to last season, and an elite fantasy running back.

 

4. Frank Gore, SF: I LOVE Gore’s potential for this season. San Francisco is an improving team, with a lower tier quarterback. That spells a lot of handoffs and safety-valve passes to Gore this season. The biggest issue with Gore is his propensity to get injured, he missed two games last season with an ankle injury. However, I think the potential reward with Gore is worth the risk. Just make sure you grab a good backup in the later rounds.

 

5. Ray Rice, BAL: I don’t think many people expected Rice to completely supplant Willis McGahee in the way he did last season. He had more than twice as many carries as McGahee, and he was able to rush for more than 1,300 yards. But there is a problem, McGahee got the bulk of the goal line carries for the Ravens. Because of that dynamic, Rice was only able to manage 7 touchdowns while McGahee got 12. But Rice did lead the league in running back pass targets last season and will continue to be a huge part of the passing game in Baltimore this season, which will mean tons of yardage and points for Rice.

 

6. Stephen Jackson, STL: He plays on a terrible team, there’s no doubting that. But Jackson found a way to produce on one of the worst offenses in the league last year. He was able to rack up more than 1,400 yards and also caught 51 passes for another 300 yards. His biggest problem is that last season he just couldn’t find the end-zone. Jackson only scored 4 times last season, which was the lowest total he’s had since his rookie year. He’s crazy talented though, and I would expect him to be able to find the end-zone a few more time this year and he should be a great back this season.

 

7. Michael Turner, ATL: This guy could have been huge last year if he hadn’t been hurt. He was a fantasy force through the first half of the season, but then he suffered a nasty ankle injury and crushed the dreams of many a fantasy owner, myself included. But in only 10 games Turner managed to score 10 touchdowns and rushed for 871 yards. If you stretch that production out over a full season it would equate to about 1,400 yards and 16 scores. That is fantastic production, and if he can stay healthy he should put up numbers similar to those. If Turner is still available to you in the middle of the first round I would strongly suggest you pick him up and do a little victory dance. Because you may have stumbled upon a huge steal.

 

8. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT: Who would have thought he’d look so good last year after looking so terrible in his rookie season? After taking over for Willie Parker in week 4, he managed to average 4.6 yards per carry behind what is really an overrated offensive line in Pittsburgh. There could be problems early in the year with Big Ben out for the first 4 games, as teams will be able to key their defensive game plans to stop the Steelers’ run game. However, once Ben is back Mendenhall should be a great weapon in the Steelers’ arsenal, and is certainly capable of serving as a #1 fantasy running back.

 

9. DeAngelo Williams, CAR: This is a tough call for me. I love Williams’ talent, and the Panthers love to run the ball. But there’s one big problem, and his name is Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers have the luxury of having two incredibly talented running backs, and when Williams was injured last year Stewart became a fantasy force. However, Williams is the more talented back, and the Panthers will run enough for both guys to see plenty of carries. My bet is that Williams goes for over 1,000 yards and manages double digit scores.

 

10. Shonn Greene, NYJ: He has a lot of hype surrounding him right now, so I have a feeling he may get drafted too early this year. But there are reasons to love Greene this season. No more Thomas Jones, one of the best offensive lines in the league, and a run first offense. I think LaDanian Tomlinson is done, so I have no worries that Greene will see the majority of the Jets’ carries. I’m very high on Greene’s potential this season, especially after his fantastic performance in last year’s playoffs. However, there is almost zero track record to go on at this point as a reference for what his production may be. Plus, he had some injury issues in college. That’s why I’m being cautious with him this season and ranking Greene in the 10 slot.

 

11. Ryan Grant, GB: Grant has been producing like a fantasy #1 back, but he has the name recognition of a #2 fantasy back. That may be the best thing that could happen to a fantasy owner. Grant rushed for more than 1,200 yards last season and found the end zone 11 times. That’s outstanding production for a guy who may just slip into the late 2nd or even as far as the late 3rd round. You won’t be thrilled with Grant’s production if he’s your #1 back, but he certainly won’t disappoint you either. But if you’re able to get him for your second back be thankful, he’s going to be a huge help for you.

 

12. Cedric Benson, CIN: Will he be suspended? Only time will tell, and the NFL has given no indication of its intentions. Even with that said, I just don’t like Benson as much as many fantasy writers. For all the praise he got last year in fantasy circles, he just didn’t score. Benson only found the end zone 6 times last season, a pathetic number for a guy who is being touted as a fantasy stud this season. And then there are the off the field concerns. Benson has been in trouble before, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t get suspended for his assault arrest. Draft Benson at your own risk, if he plays he’ll probably be able to rack up a fair number of yards, but I doubt if he reaches double digits in touchdowns.

 

13. Beanie Wells, ARI: Maybe it’s a Big Ten bias, but I think Wells is due to explode this season. I have to think with the retirement of Kurt Warner the Cardinals are going to have to run the ball a lot more than they have in the past. Wells looked very good at the end of the season in 2009, and has to be the leader for the bulk of the carries heading into training camp. And just remember, Wells weighs 240 pounds, it would be shocking if goal line carries went to any other player on that team. Wells will probably be available as late as the 3rd or 4th round, and would make for a great #2 fantasy RB.

 

14. Ryan Matthews, SD: The Chargers gave up a lot to get their hands on Matthews, and I think he’s going to end up seeing the majority of the carries in a very potent offense. Darren Sproles has shown he isn’t an every down type of back, so that leaves Matthews as the guy in San Diego. There isn’t a whole lot of data with which to make an assessment on Matthews except talent, and it looks like he has that in abundance. Matthews is essentially a “high risk/high reward” type of pick, and would make a much better #2 fantasy back than a #1.

 

15. Knowshon Moreno, DEN: The guy has talent; that much is apparent. But his production last year wasn’t what people expected it to be. Not to mention Josh McDaniels insisted on feeding the ball to Corell Buckhalter just as often as he gave it to Moreno. I think he’ll probably see about 20 carries per game, and with a year under his belt he’ll be more comfortable with the speed of the NFL game. I expect about 1,000 yards and 8 or 9 scores from Moreno. If you draft him, make sure he’s your #2 back and you snag a solid backup plan if McDaniels decides he likes Buckhalter a little too much again this year.

 

16. LeSean McCoy, PHI: Here’s a fact that you all know: Andy Reid likes to pass the ball. So essentially for McCoy to be successful he’ll have to act like Brian Westbrook from years past and catch a whole bunch of balls. I have a feeling that will happen enough to make McCoy a viable fantasy option. But be warned, he got stuffed a lot on short yardage situations last year, so he probably won’t be seeing many goal line carries. Temper your expectations with McCoy, as his point totals will depend on how many times Kevin Kolb chooses to throw to him.

 

17. Jamaal Charles, KC: I’m probably being stupid in saying this, but I’m not worried about Thomas Jones. Charles was an absolute monster in the second half of the year, scoring 7 TDs in his last 8 games and rushing for over 100 yards in each of his last 4 games. What’s more impressive? Four of those scores came from 40 yards or more away. Charles has great big play ability, but he’ll likely lose out on the goal line carries to Jones. If he was alone I’d have Charles much higher on this list, but with Jones in town I expect him to top 1,200 yards but probably only score about 6 or 7 times. That makes him a good option for a #2 back, but too risky to be a #1.

 

18. Jonathan Stewart, CAR: Did you read what I wrote about DeAngelo Williams? Well pretty much all of it applies for Stewart as well. Frankly, if you draft Williams you should probably try to draft Stewart as well. That way if one goes down you’ll have a certified fantasy ace in your backfield. I expect Stewart to have another stellar season, but probably won’t have quite as many big plays as Williams, which is why he’s 9 slots below his teammate. But don’t be mistaken, he deserves to start in all standard fantasy leagues.

 

19. Pierre Thomas, NO: Thomas is the most well rounded back on the Saints roster. However, that doesn’t mean he isn’t going to lose looks to guys like Reggie Bush. His talents warrant he should see more looks, but then again, so do Bush’s. Expect these guys to compliment one another all year, with neither separating themselves in any significant way. With that said, Thomas will still see the majority of the “between the tackles” carries, which makes him a passable #2 fantasy back.

 

20. Ronnie Brown, MIA: Yet another team where two players are each going to see a significant number of carries. Brown is immensely talented, but unfortunately fantasy owners have yet to see much of that talent because of a string of injuries. Those injuries allowed his teammate Ricky Williams to miraculously resurrect his career in Miami. The Dolphins will likely split carries evenly between Williams and Brown, which means each will be a low end #2 back.

 

21. Ricky Williams, MIA: Did you read what I said about splitting carries evenly? Do I need to say anything else? I do? OK....ummmm.....I’ve got nothing.

 

22. Felix Jones, DAL: Marion Barber saw more carries than Jones last season, but Jones was unquestionably the Cowboys’ “home run” back. At this point in the running backs you need to look for the guys who are most likely to get into the end zone. The Cowboys are a pass first team and with weapons like Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Jason Witten in the passing game I fully expect them to throw more often than they run in the red zone. This means Cowboys’ running backs are going to have to score from a long way out more often than not. Jones is far more likely to do that than Marion Barber and that’s why he makes this list.

 

23. Reggie Bush, NO: Again, another big play running back. Bush isn’t going to see a lot of carries, but he will have plenty of plays going his way which are designed to get him in space. If Bush gets some room to run no defender is going to catch him. He managed to score 8 times last season, with three of those coming on pass plays. I expect him to match those touchdown totals while grabbing more than 50 receptions for around 400 yards this season. However, his style of play naturally makes him a streaky player, and therefore is a borderline #2 fantasy back.

 

24. Jerome Harrison, CLE: There’s a Cleveland Brown on a fantasy football list? Something must be wrong here. Well no, nothing is wrong, this is just proof of how important it is to get a solid running back early in the draft. Harrison is decently talented, and on a better team could be a very good fantasy option. However, he plays for the Browns, and they’re probably going to have to come from behind a lot this season. That means fewer clock draining runs, and more downfield passing. That will obviously hurt Harrison’s fantasy value, and you should be cautious in drafting him as a starting fantasy back.

 

25. Jahvid Best, DET: Best is an explosive back, but he’s also a Lion. See my explanation for Jerome Harrison and then add that we’ve never seen this guy play against NFL competition. He could blow up, but be careful if you draft him and make sure you have another more consistent option.

 

THE “DON’T DRAFT ME’S”

 

-Matt Forte, CHI: The signing of Chester Taylor isn’t exactly a vote of confidence from the Bears’ front office. At best he’ll be splitting carries, and at worst he could be pushed out completely by the underrated Taylor.

 

-Joseph Addai, IND: He’s just plain not as talented as Donald Brown. I find it hard to believe that Jim Caldwell will ignore Brown this year like he did in 2009. If he scores as many touchdowns as he did last season, I’ll be shocked.

 

-Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Marshawn Lynch, BUF: If Lynch stays in Buffalo that’s a ridiculous log jam. But even if he does get cut or traded Spiller and Jackson will be splitting carries on an otherwise terrible offense. Not a recipe for fantasy success.

 

-Any New England Patriot: I told you this already, but just don’t do it. Seriously, don’t....do....it!

 

SPARTAN SIDE-NOTE

 

-Javon Ringer, TEN: With LenDale White out of the way it looks like Javon will be Chris Johnson’s backup. Johnson led the league in touches last year, so if you draft him I’d strongly recommend picking up one of our favorite Spartans. If Johnson does get injured I think Ringer could step in and produce in a big way.