Heavy pressure on Gophers to beat upcoming Quad 1 opponents
Nothing is more important in college basketball than winning as many Quad 1 games as possible. Those are the games that can take a team off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament. For the Gophers men's basketball team, it's sitting on a golden opportunity with their next three games against Quad 1 opponents.
First up is Tuesday night's tilt with Michigan State in Minneapolis. The Gophers lost 76-66 at Breslin Center when the two Big Tens foes met Jan. 18, a game that was tied 62-62 with under five minutes to play before the Gophers finished with nearly as many turnovers (4) as shot attempts (5), all of which they missed.
Minnesota is 0-3 in Quad 1 games (Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin) and 4-3 in Quad 2 games (wins over Nebraska, Michigan, Penn State, Northwestern). They're 1-1 against Quad 3 opponents (win over Maryland) and a perfect 9-0 against Quad 4 competition.
The quadrant system helps identify quality of wins and losses and is used heavily by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. For example, a win over a top-30 team at home is about equal to beating a top-75 team on the road.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Overall, the Gophers are 14-7, including 5-5 in the Big Ten, which puts them just a half-game behind Michigan State and Northwestern for fourth place. But while the Spartans and Wildcats, and Nebraska for that matter, are considered tourney teams by ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the Gophers are not. And it's largely because of a cupcake non-conference schedule and zero Quad 1 wins.
Northwestern has four Quad 1 wins. It beat Purdue and then took the Boilermakers to overtime, proving capable of killing giants. The committee loves and respects that. Nebraska has three Quad 1 wins, also doing some giant-killing with wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, who are currently projected by Lunardi as No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively.
The KenPom rankings are a really good indicator for which teams deserve to be in the tourney come March, and Minnesota is currently 76th in the nation. Not good enough.
Lunardi's first four out – Florida, Washington State, Gonzaga and Butler – rank 33rd, 43rd, 21st and 47th, respectively, in the KenPom ratings.
Michigan State, 17th in the KenPom ratings, could be Minnesota's first Quad 1 victim. A loss would leave the Gophers only five more Quad 1 opportunities, including Saturday at Iowa, and next Tuesday at Mackey Arena against the juggernaut, No. 2-ranked Boilermakers.
Lunardi is currently predicting six Big Ten teams to reach the tourney: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State and Nebraska.
The Gophers have beaten Northwestern and Nebraska, so a victory over Michigan State could go a long way in helping make their case if they wind up on the bubble come Selection Sunday on March 17.
Josh Ola-Joseph
Photo by Brad Rempel, University of Minnesota
