How big is the gap between Gophers and bubble teams?
The Minnesota Golden Gophers, after playing one of the least intimidating non-conference schedules, is slowly but surely putting together a solid case to be an NCAA Tournament team.
At 15-7 overall and 6-5 in the Big Ten, they're in fourth place in the conference but still don't appear anywhere in the respected bracket predictions from the likes of ESPN's Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm.
Palm lists Oregon, Cincinnati, Seton Hall and Wake Forest as the first four teams missing out in his latest bracket projection, with the next four out being Richmond, Georgia, Gonzaga and Memphis.
How far behind those eight teams are the Gophers? It's an important question to answer because Minnesota can't catch the "last four in" unless they pass the teams the experts consider to be in front of them.
As you can see in the table below, Minnesota's NET ranking (83rd) and lack of Quad 1 wins (Michigan State) is hurting them. That's why upcoming games at Iowa (Saturday) and at Purdue (next Tuesday) are critical Quad 1 opportunities.
| Team | Record | NET | KenPom | Quad 1 | Quad 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota | 15-7 | 83 | 73 | 1-3 | 4-3 |
Oregon | 15-7 | 58 | 55 | 2-4 | 2-2 |
Cincinnati | 15-7 | 32 | 31 | 2-5 | 2-1 |
Seton Hall | 15-8 | 66 | 62 | 4-4 | 1-3 |
Wake Forest | 15-7 | 33 | 25 | 0-3 | 6-4 |
Richmond | 16-6 | 73 | 82 | 1-2 | 5-3 |
Georgia | 14-9 | 88 | 136 | 1-5 | 2-4 |
Gonzaga | 17-6 | 26 | 22 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
Memphis | 16-6 | 78 | 76 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
The Gophers have played just four games against so-called Quad 1 teams. Minnesota is also winless against ranked opponents, which isn't too surprising since they've played just one opponent (Wisconsin) that was ranked in the AP poll.
Here's how the eight teams on the bubble in Palm's latest projection have performed against ranked foes (based on the AP top 25).
- Oregon: 0-2
- Cincinnati: 3-4
- Seton Hall: 3-4
- Wake Forest: 0-1
- Richmond: 1-1
- Georgia: 0-4
- Gonzaga: 0-2
- Memphis: 4-0
Georgia being ahead of Minnesota in the eyes of Palm is a bit questionable, but it's hard to put the Gophers ahead of any of the seven others who are considered bubble teams.
Overall, the gap doesn't seem all that large but Minnesota needs more Quad 1 wins and perhaps a win or two over ranked opponents to better their case for March 17 (Selection Sunday).
Feb 3, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers forward Pharrel Payne (21) celebrates after blocking a shot against Northwestern Wildcats center Matthew Nicholson (34) during the second half at Williams Arena.
Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
