Minnesota may have at least 20 teams to pass for spot in tourney
A lot is going to change over the next few weeks, but as it stands now Joe Lunardi doesn't appear to believe the Minnesota Gophers are even close to being on the bubble.
That's a shocker since Minnesota is 17-9 overall and 8-8 in the Big Ten. Most years, a team in the Big Ten with a record of .500 in conference play is going to be on the bubble. But not the Gophers, and that's probably the result of playing one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the nation.
On Friday, Lunardi explained his current ESPN bracket projection by saying he has 38 teams who he believes have at least an 85% chance to make the tournament, and those 38 added to 24 automatic bids and leaves only six spots up for grabs.
Lunardi says there are 26 teams fighting for those six spots, and the Gophers aren't one of them. The six he has making the dance are Virginia, Nevada, Seton Hall, Providence, Gonzaga and Texas A&M.
The 20 teams he has missing out are listed in order from closest to furthest away:
- Wake Forest
- Utah
- Ole Miss
- Villanova
- Butler
- Drake
- Oregon
- Colorado
- Cincinnati
- Iowa
- James Madison
- Pittsburgh
- SMU
- Princeton
- St. John's
- Kansas State
- Virginia Tech
- Rutgers
- Memphis
- Syracuse
With zero mention of Minnesota it's impossible to know how much further back they are. But it's precisely why the Gophers' surest way of reaching the NCAA Tournament is by pulling off what would be a stunning run to the Big Ten Tournament championship, which will be hosted in Minneapolis March 13-17.
Let's compare Minnesota to the 26 teams mentioned above, looking at record, NET/KenPom, Strength of Record and Quad 1 record. As you can see below, the only teams in the chart with a worse Strength of Record than Minnesota are SMU and Rutgers.
| Team | Record | NET/KenPom | SOR | Quad 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia | 20-7 | 47/65 | 31 | 3-3 |
Nevada | 20-6 | 42/42 | 46 | 5-4 |
Seton Hall | 17-9 | 65/60 | 42 | 5-5 |
Providence | 18-9 | 56/54 | 39 | 5-6 |
Gonzaga | 20-6 | 22/19 | 47 | 1-5 |
Texas A&M | 15-11 | 49/52 | 61 | 6-5 |
Wake Forest | 17-9 | 27/20 | 51 | 1-5 |
Utah | 16-10 | 46/47 | 52 | 4-6 |
Ole Miss | 19-7 | 68/70 | 25 | 3-6 |
Villanova | 15-11 | 34/31 | 59 | 3-6 |
Butler | 15-11 | 62/57 | 45 | 4-10 |
Drake | 22-5 | 44/48 | 54 | 2-1 |
Oregon | 18-8 | 59/56 | 50 | 2-5 |
Colorado | 17-9 | 41/37 | 58 | 2-5 |
Cincinnati | 16-10 | 45/41 | 62 | 3-6 |
Iowa | 16-11 | 63/51 | 56 | 3-7 |
James Madison | 24-3 | 48/58 | 43 | 1-1 |
Pittsburgh | 17-9 | 57/61 | 69 | 3-5 |
SMU | 18-8 | 40/40 | 74 | 0-3 |
Princeton | 17-3 | 54/69 | 33 | 0-0 |
St. John's | 15-12 | 50/45 | 66 | 2-9 |
Kansas State | 15-11 | 76/71 | 63 | 2-5 |
Virginia Tech | 15-11 | 51/50 | 70 | 3-6 |
Rutgers | 14-12 | 92/88 | 72 | 3-10 |
Memphis | 19-8 | 82/82 | 60 | 3-3 |
Syracuse | 16-10 | 86/85 | 48 | 2-7 |
Minnesota | 17-9 | 72/63 | 71 |
Will the NCAA selection committee have an awareness to spot Minnesota as a team that is playing at a tournament-deserving level when Selection Sunday arrives on March 17, or will Minnesota's body of work be too limited because of the soft non-conference schedule?
We'll all find out soon enough.
Feb 22, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers forward Parker Fox (23) reacts to a foul charge called against him during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Williams Arena.
Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
