Minnesota's tourney hopes: What can we glean from committee's top 16 preview?
The NCAA selection committee on Saturday unveiled its first and only look at its current top-16 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
- Purdue
- UConn
- Houston
- Arizona
- North Carolina
- Tennessee
- Marquette
- Kansas
- Alabama
- Baylor
- Iowa State
- Duke
- Auburn
- San Diego State
- Illinois
- Wisconsin
While Minnesota fans can't learn much from the reveal since the Gophers aren't included, we can nibble around the details to see what matters most to the selection committee – and the most important thing appears to be Quad 1 victories.
For example, some teams have elite standing in the NET and KenPom rankings but aren't rated higher in the selection committee's top 16 because of fewer Quad 1 wins.
For example, Auburn is 13th despite being ranked 6th in the NET and 4th in KenPom. Alabama is 9th in the committee's top 16 (good for a No. 3 seed in the tournament) with a ranking of 5th in the NET and 7th in KenPom.
Why is Alabama rated higher than Auburn when they split their two games against each other? It appears to be because Alabama has three Quad 1 wins compared to just two for Auburn.
Another example is Kansas, ranked 8th overall (good for a No. 2 seed in the tourney) in the committee's top 16. The Jayhawks are 16th in NET and 20th in KenPom but they have six Quad 1 wins, including victories over national powers UConn and Houston. Those Quad 1 wins carry a lot of weight.
What about comparing Minnesota to other fringe tourney teams from the Big Ten? Let's take a look at Nebraska and Northwestern – two teams the Gophers have defeated – and explore why they are getting love from bracketologists like Joe Lundardi and Jerry Palm when the Gophers aren't.
The answer is easy: Quad 1 wins.
Nebraska beat Purdue and Wisconsin. Northwestern has wins over Purdue and Illinois. Minnesota's best win was at home against Michigan State. Even though the Gophers can argue that they were good enough (and perhaps should've beaten) to beat Purdue and Wisconsin on the road, they didn't hold onto leads and those losses could prove to be bubble bursters.
| Team | NET/KenPom | Strength of Record | Quad 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
Nebraska | 48/40 | 36 | 3-6 |
Northwestern | 57/47 | 25 | 4-5 |
Minnesota | 78/67 | 77 | 1-5 |
But opportunities still exist for Minnesota.
The Gophers have three Quad 1 games left and they might need to win them all to get into the NCAA Tournament (barring a Big Ten Tournament championship, which comes with an automatic bid to the dance).
- Feb. 25: at Nebraska
- Feb. 28: at Illinois
- March 9: at Northwestern
Nebraska, Illinois and Northwestern are three of the best home-court teams in the nation so the odds will be stacked against Minnesota but they could leave with extremely valuable victories.
The common theme from bracketologists has been putting six teams from the Big Ten in the tournament. That could change, but if it stays at six then Minnesota is going to have to leap someone.
Northwestern has two Quad 1 games remaining (Maryland and Michigan State) and Nebraska has just one more game against a Quad 1 opponent (Ohio State). Minnesota has an opportunity over the final three weeks of the regular season to change minds because they have more Quad 1 chances.
The game at Illinois will carry the most Quad 1 weight, but if Minnesota can sweep Nebraska and/or Northwestern, that could also speak volumes to the committee.
The last gasp scenario for Minnesota would require an incredible run in the conference tournament to earn a pair of slippers for the dance.
Dawson Garcia takes a shot against Rutgers.
Photo by Matt Krohn, University of Minnesota
