Gophers hockey seeding outlook: Can they hold on to a No. 1 seed?

There's still a lot of hockey left to be played before this year's NCAA Tournament.

Leo Gruba skating by a Notre Dame defender during Minnesota Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal loss. | Photo via: Kelly Lynn (University of Minnesota)

The Gophers men's hockey team was at home during last weekend's Big Ten tournament semifinals after being knocked out by Notre Dame in the opening round. Their spot in the NCAA Tournament is secure, but their seeding could shift significantly between now and next week's selection show.

Minnesota is currently fourth in the latest PairWise Rankings, which would give them the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, every other team in the top seven is still competing in their conference tournaments.

The conference tournaments that will have the biggest impact on the Gophers' seed are Hockey East and the National Collegiate Hockey Conference (NCHC). Current PairWise No. 3 Maine is the top seed in Hockey East, followed by No. 6 Boston University and No. 7 UConn.

The semifinals take place Thursday night at TD Garden, with UConn facing Boston and Maine taking on Northeastern. The championship game follows on Friday.

According to College Hockey News' seeding simulator, both UConn and Boston could leapfrog the Gophers in the PairWise if they win Hockey East, while Maine would likely stay ahead if they reach the title game. The ideal scenario for Gophers fans? Top-seeded Maine taking care of business, minimizing the number of teams that could pass Minnesota.

Minnesota’s seeding fate is also tied to the NCHC tournament, where current PairWise No. 5 Western Michigan faces North Dakota in the semifinals, with a potential championship matchup against either Denver or Arizona State. This situation is more straightforward: if the Broncos win out, they will jump the Gophers. If they lose in either the semis or the championship, Minnesota should have enough cushion to hold onto the last No. 1 seed.

The PairWise Rankings are the primary tool the NCAA uses to determine seeding. The Gophers could drop as low as No. 6 depending on this week's results, which would push them down to a No. 2 seed. With their early exit from the Big Ten Tournament, they'll have a full two weeks off before hearing their name called on the selection show on March 23.

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