Marlar: The Path is Bleak For Mississippi State Men's Basketball
The term “bubble team” gets thrown around a lot each year as Selection Sunday approaches, and for Mississippi State, there was a time where that term applied to them.
Now, though, a whole different team takes the floor for MSU night in and night out. They’re no longer a bubble team. They’re on the outside looking in, and for the moment, they’re not simply outside. They’re outside, across the pasture, in the neighbor’s yard and heading the other direction.
In fact, in some bracketology reports, they’re already the 11th team out, with Memphis, Florida, UAB and Belmont all ahead of them.
At the moment, they’re 44th in the KenPom rankings, which under most circumstances wouldn’t be that bad, but this is by no means a normal team. This is a team that sits at 14-10, who is about to go on the road to play Alabama, a team that just came off a huge win against Arkansas. This is a team that still hasn’t been able to get a singular true road win this season, and according to the experts, they probably won’t be getting one very soon.
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives the Tide about a 70% chance of taking the victory on their home court, and rightfully so. If MSU were to keep their tournament hopes alive after dropping these four straight quadrant one wins, it would take a miracle, and here’s that might have to play out.
After Bama, MSU has to do something that’s incredibly difficult — they’ll go on to play two games in three days against the same team in Missouri, one game at home and one away. Missouri is not a good basketball team. They possess a dismal 10-14 record and will most likely finish the season at under .500.
That means that more than anything else, MSU cannot afford a loss in either of those two games. To do that, though, they’ll have to play 80 straight minutes of winning basketball in three days. This team has had a tough enough time putting 40 minutes together, but if they can get out of the Missouri exchange with two wins, it will carry some momentum into the next opponent.
Assuming MSU wins their first road game of the season at Missouri, they’ll have a great chance to gain their second one against South Carolina in their next contest. They handled the Gamecocks fairly well in their recent trip to Starkville, winning 78-64. Although MSU has hit a slump as of late, these three games provide some good chances to get back on track.
Then comes Vanderbilt in Humphrey Coliseum on February 26th for a noon tip-off. Trap-game central. The Commodores have not been one of the gems of the SEC by any means this season, but they mirror MSU’s record almost to the letter, sitting at 13-11. However, they sit at 77th in the KenPom rankings and 76th in the NET rankings. If MSU were to drop this game, they might as well pack a bag for the NIT afterwards. The Bulldogs need this one and the three before it to give themselves a shot before they play the buzzsaw that is Auburn and a reeling Texas A&M team to close out the year.
Realistically, the magic number is usually 20 wins. However, with MSU’s lack of performance in quad-1 games, it might just take more than that. It’ll take winning every game you should for the rest of the regular season, and then winning one or two you shouldn’t in the SEC tournament for MSU to go dancing. What they do when they get there isn’t important right now - they just need to get there, and that’s a tall enough order as it is.
So, yes. The path ahead is bleak for MSU basketball. It’s one with its fair share of trap games and powerhouses, but it’s doable. Will they do it? That is to be determined.
