Dave Feit: Another Rock Bottom?

There’s something familiar about Michigan’s drubbing of the Huskers — and about the spot Nebraska finds itself in

Of all the things that were said after Nebraska’s never-in-doubt loss to Michigan, this quote from Coach stood out to me:

“Yeah, I knew we had a lot of work to do,” he said. “We’re not giving up. They brought us in here to get it right, and we’re going to get it right. But we knew it was a big job because there is just so much that had to be fixed and changed.”

He’s exactly right. There is a big job ahead. Anybody who watched that game could see a defense that could not get stops, an offense that could not move the ball, shaky special teams, and talent gaps at numerous positions. There is so much that needs to be fixed and changed to get the Huskers to where the Wolverines are at.

If the outcome of this game was a surprise to you, I don’t think you’ve been paying attention the last five years.

Nebraska has been deficient in recruiting high-end talent, developing the players they have and retaining the ones that break through. Meanwhile, Michigan has been steadily building and improving to become arguably the best program in the Big Ten. Nebraska may get there someday, but it’s foolish to expect it five games in after the worst five-year stretch in modern history.

Speaking of five years ago, go back and re-read that quote at the top. Matt Rhule did not say those words. That is a quote from Scott Frost after Nebraska lost to Michigan in 2018. That was a 56-10 loss that Frost described as “rock bottom” for the Nebraska program. Except, it wasn’t anywhere close to rock bottom.

Five years later, and Nebraska is still in the same damn spot. Any possible progress and momentum from 2021’s close loss (featuring a lot of Mike Riley recruits) is long gone.

That was an ugly, painful loss, and I won’t judge anybody who left early or turned off the TV. I’m going to advocate for washing our hands of it as quickly as possible, which is good because there’s another game in a few short days.

Things I believe

That was a measuring stick game, and NU came up short. Let’s get out and extend a metaphorical tape measure:

Michigan 45
Nebraska 7

The gap between the two programs was that wide. There’s no need to measure twice. One painful cut is enough.

Michigan is where Nebraska wants to be. A talented – and deep – roster. They know who they are, and they play to their strengths. There are numerous reasons the Wolverines have won the conference the last two years.

There are a lot of things to like about the 2023 Huskers, but they don’t yet match up favorably with the #2 team in the country.

I have not seen anything to discourage me on Matt Rhule’s ability to elevate Nebraska, and eventually close the gap against the best teams in the country.

But it ain’t happening in five games.

I’m not going to worry too much about what I saw on Saturday. We could panic about Nebraska’s lack of running game, the 249 rush yards the defense allowed, the lack of pressure on J.J. McCarthy, or a number of other things that popped up during the game.

But unless it is an on-going concern (a few of which we’ll address below), I’m not going to lose sleep about a lot of what I saw.

Let’s be blunt: Michigan is really good. Nebraska currently is not. The majority of the teams left on the schedule are much closer to Nebraska’s level than Michigan’s. Therefore, I’m not going to sound alarm bells over what may be one-off results against a superior opponent.

There are a few chronic issues that we need to chat about, but I’m willing to institute Olympic scoring: throw out the highest and lowest scores and judge based on the rest.

The focus needs to be “Find Four.” With the loss, Nebraska falls to 2-3 on the season. That’s the bad news. The good news is, a bowl game is still very much on the table. Aside from breaking a long bowl drought, it would unlock an extra 15 practices that would be crucial to the development of a young program.

Nebraska needs to find four wins out of the remaining seven games: at Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, at Michigan State, Maryland, at Wisconsin, and Iowa.

Outside of maybe Maryland, nobody else on Nebraska’s schedule is anywhere as good as Michigan. I would call the Big Ten West a dumpster fire, but the entire division (Nebraska obviously included) is such a mess, I’m not sure they could collectively light a match without screwing it up.

I’m not convinced Nebraska can find four wins (the Huskers have more than their fair share of flaws and depth concerns). It’s worth pointing out that in his first seasons at Temple and Baylor, Rhule won a total of three games. That said, Rhule will face two other first year coaches and two interim coaches in this stretch run.

“Find Four” – by pretty much any means possible – should be the focus for October and November.

Things I don’t know

How fast can Nebraska turn the page? The first game of the “Find Four” stretch run is Friday night in Champaign, Illinois. The Illini (also 2-3) have struggled this year too.

Instead of spending time breaking down Illinois, we’ll focus on Nebraska. It will be interesting to see how they respond from the blowout loss. Will they bounce back or start to spiral? Will they be looking forward to the off week?

Further complicating things is a) a shorter than normal week of prep, b) a road trip, and c) a banged-up roster. Several key Huskers either didn’t play against Michigan or left the game early. Will guys like Luke Reimer, DeShon Singleton, Turner Corcoran, and Nash Hutmacher be ready to play? Is this the week Jeff Sims is ready to return to action?

Nebraska’s response Friday night will be a fascinating look into the early growth and culture adoption within Rhule’s program. I don’t want to call it a “must win” or a “referendum game”, but there is an opportunity for a statement to be made.

Which third-down conversion rate is more concerning? For the season, the offense is 23 of 59 on third down. Their 39% conversion rate is 11th in the conference. Defensively, the Blackshirts have allowed 33 of 75 third downs to be converted (44%, also 11th in the conference).

Neither is great, but which one is worse?

I lean toward the offense. Excluding the Northern Illinois game (conversion rate of 57%), the offense is only picking up one out of every three third downs. I don’t have the average yards-to-go handy, but it sure feels like the Huskers are often in third and long.

In the three losses, the defense has allowed 47%, 53% and 62% of the opponent’s respective third downs to be converted. That’s not a great percentage against Power Five competition. We’ll see if that trend continues.

There’s a ton of advanced stats we can look at, but the ability to extend drives on offense and get off the field on defense is still one of the more telling stats in football. Nebraska needs to improve on both sides.

Why did Nebraska run out of the shotgun on fourth & 1? Late in the first quarter, down 14 points, Nebraska had fourth & 1 from the Michigan 12.

Quarterback Heinrich Haarberg initially lined up under center as the play clock approached zero. After a Nebraska time out, Haarberg lined up in the shotgun. He took the snap, ran forward, and leapt into the teeth of the Wolverine defense. First down Michigan.

I understand that Nebraska’s offensive line is not exactly the Pipeline – or even on par with some of the average lines in the post-Tenopir decades. But running out of the shotgun in short yardage seems to put them at an even greater disadvantage.

I’d like to see Nebraska steal the Philadelphia Eagles’ “tush push” play, where they bunch everybody in tight and have the quarterback sneak it while the backs attempt to shove him forward. The play might be as controversial as pineapple on pizza, but I’m going to advocate for Nebraska to take every advantage it can.

Huskerigami Update

A “Huskerigami” is a final score combination (win or lose) that has never happened in the 130+ year history of Nebraska football.

Final score: 45-7

Is that a Huskerigami? No. It has happened twice before. The first time was a win at Colorado on October 25, 1980, a breakout game for third-string I-back Roger Craig. The most recent was a win against Kansas on November 9, 2002.

5 things I loved

1. Josh Fleeks. Is Fleeks here because he made Nebraska’s biggest play? Or because I was impressed by the former wide receiver making an immediate impact at running back? Or maybe because his touchdown saved me from having half the fan base tell me that I “jinxed” Nebraska by pointing out how long it has been since Nebraska was shut out? Yes. All of the above.
2. Billy Kemp IV. One third of Haarberg’s 24 throws went Kemp’s direction. I liked how Kemp was able to get some yards after his catches. Against a team that is not #2 in the country, he might break one.
3. Heinrich Haarberg. I’m a sucker for quarterbacks completing passes to themselves. As for the rest of his day, Haarberg didn’t have the greatest day, but he wasn’t the reason Nebraska lost. The adversity he faced should help him the rest of the season.
4. Janiran Bonner. I’m also a sucker for fullbacks getting carries. Bonner didn’t exactly light up the stat sheets (2 carries for 5 yards), but I’m a believer in getting more options involved in the offense. I like his potential as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.
5. The fans who stayed. There were a million reasons to leave. It was hot (92 at kickoff). Michigan was up 14-0 before the pregame flyover pilots were back at the airport. At halftime, it was 28-0, and the game didn’t feel that close. To the fans who decided to come back after halftime – and especially those who stayed until the end – I salute you. Some day we will be rewarded.

Honorable mention: Brian Buschini, Thomas Fidone II, Isaac Gifford, Nick Henrich, Omar Brown, Javin Wright, Jaylen Lloyd, the Michigan fans who bought us shots before the game.

5 areas for improvement

1. Fumbles. A lot of people were – right or wrong – very critical of quarterback Jeff Sims for his issues holding onto the ball. Unfortunately, Haarberg is also putting the ball on the ground at a high rate. Even if Nebraska is falling on top of these drops, the offense isn’t capable of overcoming the lost yardage.
2. Defense. There were not a lot of positives from the defense on Saturday. Very few disruptive plays (sacks, hurries, tackles for loss, pass breakups, etc.) of any kind. I’m hopeful for a bounce back performance on Friday.
3. Offensive line. Four more sacks (14 in five games), and more than half of the 137 sack-adjusted rush yards gained came on a single play against Michigan’s reserves. The lack of offensive production starts up front.
4. Tristan Alvano. I saw a tweet that pointed out a fan competing in an on-field contest made more field goals (1) than NU’s kicker did. While I appreciate the dark humor, it’s not a fair comparison. The fan had the benefit of a 25-mph wind at his back for the 30 yarder that earned him an oversized $5,000 check. Alvano had to kick into the teeth of that wind, and never got the draw between the goal posts he was looking for. That said, I’m hoping the freshman can start making some kicks.
5. Unsympathetic Michigan fans. As I walked back to the car after the game, I was behind a pair of Michigan fans. One of them pointed out a guy across the street wearing a BBB Printing “Saturdays are for pain and sadness” shirt, which caused them both to laugh hysterically. Ha ha. Yuck it up. Just live with the knowledge that 1997 Nebraska would have kicked 1997 Michigan’s butt.