Kentucky Derby 150

Will weather be a factor?

One of the things that has been on my bucket list for many years is to go to the Kentucky Derby. Back in the 1990s and early 2000s I spent a lot of time handicapping horses. I was living in the triangle in Southern California between Santa Anita, Hollywood Park, and Del Mar race tracks. Then life happened and my focus changed to grandkids and now soon to be a great grandson. I watched Donna Barton, one of the first female jockeys to race in that circuit, and she was the guest speaker at our Thursday night reception.

Former jockey and horse racing commentator Donna Barton. /

Instead of putting money into our IRAs this year to reduce our taxes, Donna and I decided to spend it on something now. So I got an email from my Marriott credit card saying they had a Derby package limited to 20 couples and I ordered it the same day.

That is my Bob Devaney jacket from the 1983 Orange Bowl. /

The entire experience so far has been great with more food and drink than you need and my recent weight loss is taking a back seat. Today was the Kentucky Oaks and it was wet with rain off and on all day.

Tomorrow does not look to be as wet but as you can see the track is pretty sloppy. So let's focus on the Derby field that has some experience in the mud. I will post them in numerical order and not make any betting recommendations. Just the facts about their previous wet track races. You can decide if they are worthy of your consideration.

1. Dornach - On December 2nd Grade 2 Stakes race at Aqueduct in New York he ran a mile and an eighth in the mud and won by a nose over the 2 horse Sierra Leone.

2. Sierra Leone - On February 17th at Fair Grounds in a Grade 2 Stakes he won by a half length over Track Phantom and Catching Freedom finished third by another half length. Previous race in the mud on December 2nd he ran 2nd against Dornach. He won his last Grade 1 race on a dry track beating Just a Touch (8) and Epic Ride, the #21 scratch entry.

3. Mystik Dan - On February 3rd at Oaklawn Park in a Grade 3 Stakes he beat Just a Steal (8 horse) by 8 lengths.

4. Catching Freedom - On that same February 17th at Fairgrounds race he ran third by 1 3/4 lengths to Sierra Leone and Track Phantom. He rebounded in the Grade 2 Arkansas Derby to beat Honor Marie by a length.

6. Just Steel - Finished 2nd to Mystik Dan by 8 lengths in the February 3rd race.

7. Honor Marie - In that same February 17th Grade 2 race he finished 5th by over 6 lengths to Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Marie.

8. Just a Touch - On March 2nd in a Grade 3 race at Aqueduct he finished 2nd. In his follow up race at Keenland he again finished second to Sierra Leone in a Grade 1 race by 1½ lengths.

12. Track Phantom - Last October 29th in a Maiden race he finished 2nd by a half length. Finished 2nd to Sierra Leone in the February 17th Fair Grounds race.

15. Domestic Product - Beaten badly by Dornach and Sierra Leone by 16 lengths at Aqueduct on December 2nd.

17. Fierceness - Also has run twice in wet conditions delivering a mixed bag. He broke his Maiden race in the mud at Saratoga winning by 11¼ lengths on August 25th. He immediately jumped to to Grade 1 level and failed badly on a sloppy track losing by over 20 lengths. His last race was the Grade 1 Florida Derby which he won by 13½ lengths. A little Jekyll and Hyde. Most like will be the odds on favorite.

19. Resilence - Ran 4th in the February 17th race behind Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom.

20. Society Man - Two races in the mud and broke his Maiden at Aqueduct on March 9th in the mud. 50-1 morning line so probably not a factor.

That is the breakdown on how the field has run in the mud. Forecast for Derby Day is less moisture than Friday so monitoring how the track holds up in the early races will be key. I will be putting some of that not going to the IRA/leave it to the children money on that race. Wish me luck.