J.K. Dobbins Hopes Shine Remains on Running Back Position
There's no clarity yet on what J.K. Dobbins might be wearing Thursday night when the first round of the NFL Draft takes place.
Dobbins, like all Draft hopefuls, will be chilling at home in this COVID-19 era, so there will be no need for him to style like he's bound for the red carpet or the green room at Radio City Music Hall.
Dobbins is just as likely to be sporting something relaxed and comfortable as he is something snappy or stylish.
You can rest assured, though, that he won't be wearing a leisure suit and elevator shoes, even though that might be appropriate given how out of style some teams view spending a high pick on a running back in today's NFL.
While there's ample evidence a Top 10 pick spent on a running back can pay off in the pros -- thank you Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette -- it's becoming clear that a lower-round or even very-low-round running back can often provide close to the same production at a bargain price.
That's the swirling tempest into which Dobbins enters the league, hoping to find a team that still thinks an investment of heavy draft assets in a running back will pay off down the road.
It has for Dallas with Elliott, the No. 4 overall pick out of Ohio State in 2016, but few think the Cowboys will live to feel good about the six-year, $90-million extension they gave Elliott last year.
The Rams, after all, bailed on Todd Gurley less than two years into the four-year, $60 million extension they gave him.
If Dobbins goes in the first round, he gets a bigger signing bonus and the team that takes him can lock him up at its option for a fifth year at his rookie salary.
All picks below Round One are on four-year deals and can become free agents at that time.
The wisdom some teams have bought into is to never take a running back in Round One, use them, abuse them, even, and say goodbye after those first four years are up, because similar production can always be found in future drafts.
There's ample evidence for and against that view.
Of the Top 10 rushers in the NFL in 2019, Elliott, McCaffrey and Fournette all went in the Top 10. Otherwise, league leader Derek Henry, Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon, all lasted until the second round.
Chris Carson (Round 7) and Marlon Mack (Round 4) were extreme draft bargains.
In 2018, four of the top five rushers went in the Top 10 (Elliott, Gurley, Adrian Peterson and Saquon Barkley), but four of the next five went in Round 2 or below, including an undrafted free agent.
Dobbins, Georgia's DeAndre Swift and Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor all hope to hear their names called Thursday night in Round One, but the safest expectation is for none to go in the Top 25 picks and all much more likely to get taken Friday than Thursday.
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