Pokes Report Big 12 Preview: TCU
Our Big 12 preview reports continue with the TCU Horned Frogs. The 2019 season was disappointing for the Horned Frogs, finishing with a record of 5-7 and tying for seventh place in the conference after being predicted to finish fourth.
This will an another interesting season for them as they have had several big time departures to the NFL and a huge loss at quarterback after Max Duggan learned he can not play this season due to the medical reasons.
We have four questions to determine the overall state and outlook of the program for TCU...
How have they handled COVID-19?
Well, the program was doing just fine until a few days ago when they were forced to postpone the first game of the season with SMU due to multiple positive tests in the program.
The positive tests are likely from school opening back up and thousands of students now on campus. Most teams have tried to schedule their athletes only online courses but it is just not possible for 100% of the classes. There are several where students are required to be in class and spreading the virus is obviously more likely this way.
The Big 12 has put in some great protocols and rules in their athletic programs for COVID-19 and it overall seems to be effective and working at all schools. Small outbreaks such as this one are expected at times but the key now is just to contain, control, and prevent it from happening more.
What are the Horned Frogs prospects for success?
The clear answer for the prospects for success for TCU this season is their secondary.
In the high-flying Big 12, the TCU Horned Frogs have generally stood apart on the defensive side of the ball. That was no different in 2019, as they were No. 2 in the conference in total and pass defense (behind Oklahoma in both) before postseason play.
When it was all said and done, TCU finished with the 27th-ranked pass defense in FBS last year (199.7 yards per game) and 16 interceptions (tied for ninth). Nine of those interceptions came from the safety duo of Ar’Darius Washington (five) and Trevon Moehrig (four).
Moehrig was rated by Pro Football Focus as the highest-graded safety in the FBS with the third-most valuable season in the PFF College era, which earned him 2019 First-Team AP All-Big 12.
Ar'Darius Washington happened to be ranked by Pro Football Focus as the nation's second-highest graded safety, obviously behind only teammate Trevon Moehrig. PFF had him allowing only five catches out of 265 snaps in coverage while forcing a combined seven interceptions and pass breakups.
Another bright spot for the Frogs is their wide receiver corps. Although they lost 2020 first round pick Jalen Reagor, they still have two names in the room who seem ready to step up.
Frogs O War, a TCU based online community points out that "TCU will return two miniature fireballs this fall in Taye Barber and Derius Davis, who each took reps out of the H-receiver slot in 2019. Barber has been a steady producer for the Horned Frogs, topping 300 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons on the team. Barber, who started at the H-spot, was TCU’s leading receiver over its final seven games."
"Barber pieced together a breakout freshman campaign in 2018, where he totaled at least once reception in every game, the first in head coach Gary Patterson’s then 18-year career leading the program. Moreover, Barber notched either a first down or a touchdown on 21-of-32 catches. The 2019 All-Big 12 Honorable Mention shined in TCU’s 33-31 win over Texas Tech, compiling eight receptions for 137 yards."
A third name to watch for in the receiver room for the Frogs is JD Spielman.
Spielman arrived at TCU in July after transferring from Nebraska and is eligible this season. He was also just added to the Biletnikoff watch list, the award given to the top receiver in college football each season.
A three-time All-Big Ten selection, Spielman led the Cornhuskers last season with 49 receptions for a career-high 898 yards and five touchdowns. He is the only player in Nebraska history with three 800-yard receiving seasons, recording 170 receptions during his time in Lincoln. The Minneapolis native has three of the top 10 single-season receiving yard totals at Nebraska. He recorded four 100-yard games in 2019, tying for the second-most in a season in school history. He averaged 18.3 yards per reception last year, the fourth-highest yards-per-catch average in Nebraska history among receivers with 40 receptions.
Who could be the Horned Frogs difference makers?
With this answer, I am going with two former five stars who have both joined the program this offseason.
The first of the two is true freshman running Zachary Evans, who was ranked as the top running back in the 2020 recruiting class. After a rocky recruitment, the one time Georgia signee has found a home in Fort Worth under Gary Patterson.
With starting quarterback Max Duggan not able to play this season, the quarterback position is a large question mark at this time. This is why I think Evans will be called upon to be the workhorse of the offense early on at the running back position.
I believe if Evans starts out strong and stays healthy, this is a candidate for Big 12 Freshman of the Year. In Gary Patterson's 19 year tenure at TCU, he has always been known as a defensive head coach but the offense will be his biggest task this season.
The second difference maker comes by way of transfer from LSU in edge rusher/linebacker Marcel Brooks.
Brooks, who was a 5 star linebacker in the class of 2019 spent one season at LSU and maximized it by helping the Tigers win a national championship. He was in a backup role for most of the season but was featured in their "cheetah" package, a third down speed rush that offenses could not handle.
Because of the Coronavirus and uncertainty of the future of his families health, he decided to transfer closer to home and his family. He is only 30 minutes away now compared to seven hours at LSU.
Just a few days ago, Brooks received word that the NCAA approved his waiver to play this season. Before transferring, he was working at middle linebacker with LSU, so whichever position he is playing, I believe he will be an ultimate playmaker. The secondary for TCU is one of the best in the country and with a player of Brooks caliber in the front seven, this defense could make some waves.
Is the new schedule for 2020 better or worse?
Personally I am torn on whether to think their schedule has gotten easier or harder. Obviously on the surface it has gotten easier because there are less games to be played meaning healthier players and less wear and tear. On the other side, they lost California and Prairie View A&M, two games they likely would have won based purely on having more talent.
So, they might have lost two wins on their schedule and now might have to settle with a .500 season or worse instead of possibly having a winning season.
I would also argue that this new schedule has gotten easier because in the original schedule, there was a brutal four game stretch of Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Texas. That stretch has now been broken up and have weaker opponents such as Kansas and Kansas State before the tougher opponents.
It is also important to note that TCU announced on Friday that the first game of the season against SMU on Sept. 12 has been postponed and the program has paused workouts after an undisclosed number of student-athletes and support staff have tested positive for COVID-19.
Conclusion:
I think there are bright spots for this team, I just think they are not at key positions such as the quarterback position. Your receivers can be great but if your quarterback is not getting it done, it will not matter. Your running backs can be great but if they know you will run more than pass, your runs become less impactful. Your defense can be strong but if your offense can not score, it won't help. I am not saying TCU will have an awful season but I believe a 6-4 season would be the absolute best for this team in 2020.
