Key Match-Ups and Predictions for Cowboys Resuming Season with Iowa State

Showdown Saturday in Stillwater as many national media may be in denial along with Oklahoma and Texas, but Oklahoma State and Iowa State are the two best teams in the Big 12 right now.

If you're an Oklahoma State football fan then you have to be excited for several reasons heading into Saturday. First, your team is about to take the field again. Oklahoma State football has not had a positive COVID-19 test in the past two weeks and the team (heading into Friday's testing) has all of it's players and staff working toward the game with Iowa State. Give the Cyclones credit as they have gone over a month without having a positive test in their football program. Could it be a coincidence that these two teams are battling for the top of the Big 12? 

That is the another reason to be excited. I understand and even agree with national media covering college football that have doubts about Oklahoma State. They like to say that the Cowboys are ranked so high because they are 3-0 against less than stellar competition. They aren't convinced yet about the Oklahoma State defense that is so high in the statistical components. In most cases, a team's success and reputation from that success is built throughout the season. The same media that has doubts at this stage about Oklahoma State has often been eager to annoint an Oklahoma, USC, Texas, and other schools that have blue blood histories, yet none of those teams have won or in some cases, even appeared in the College Football Playoff. 

Saturday's match-up with Iowa State will reveal a lot about both teams. That said, Tulsa is a pretty good team that has already upset one of the two team's being billed as the power in the Group of Five when they upset Central Florida in Orlando on Oct. 3. I was anxious to see the Golden Hurricane host Concinnati last Saturday before Cincinnati had to postpone due to COVID-19 issues. 

While the SEC is seeing record numbers offensively and a deterioration of their reputation for playing stellar defense this season, Oklahoma State and Iowa State have strong defenses and love to control the game through their running attacks. 

I believe it is this simple, the winner on Saturday in Boone Pickens Stadium will be the team that runs the football best and stops the run the best on defense. 

Key Match-Up #1: Oklahoma State defensive ends Tyler Lacy and Trace Ford vs. Iowa State offensive tackles Sean Foster and Joey Ramos

Okay, these are the match-ups that mean the most to stopping the run or seeing the run game flourish. You can also include Calvin Bundage in on this match-up from the Cowboys side. Iowa State has been solid in the run blocking department. Foster is the more veteran lineman here as a returning starter. Ramos is young but at 6-5, 303-pounds he is athletic. 

The Oklahoma State defensive ends are really crazy about the pass rush, but their team needs them to be just as crazy about stopping the run and Breece Hall. If Hall gets cranked up the Cowboys have a much more difficult chore on Saturday. It will also help with Lacy, Ford, Bundage, and Brock Martin that you have to pass rush Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy under control. You can't go crazy because of his abbility to escape and run. 

Oklahoma State has 29 tackles-for-loss in three games and 17 of those are off run plays. Iowa State has only allowed 18-tackles-for-loss including sacks, but 14 of those are against the run. A case could be made that the Cyclones block up the pass better than the run. We'll find out in this game. 

Key Match-Up #2: Oklahoma State offensive tackles Teven Jenkins and Jake Springfield vs. Iowa State defensive ends Zach Petersen, JaQuan Bailey, and Will McDonald IV

I'm really impressed with the Iowa State defensive line and I've been a huge fan of JaQuan Bailey for several years. I think he will have a great career at the next level, but I'm hoping that the Cowboys keep him neutralized on Saturday. I believe the extra bye week really helped out the offensive line and I think Charlie Dickey has these guys playing at a higher level. They will need too. 

Jenkins and Springfield draw a tough assignment. Jenkins has been there and done that, but Springfield is fully aware this will be his toughest match-up yet. Iowa State has 15 tackles-for-loss versus the run in four games and Oklahoma State has allowed 18 tackles-for-loss against the run in three games. 

I said I thought the extra bye week helped the offensive line the most. 

Key Match-Up #3: Oklahoma State running backs Chuba Hubbard and LD Brown vs. Iowa State running backs Breece Hall and Kene Nwangwu

Hubbard has been waiting for three weeks and he's heard about Breece Hall as the leading rusher in the Big 12. Both are talented. Hall is a little bigger and more effective inside, but he has speed and can escape. Hubbard is a one cut and go guy that can make you miss and is excellent at breaking tackles. Hubbard is faster and when he gets clear he is very difficult to catch.

Brown for Oklahoma State and Nwangwe from Iowa State give fresh legs to spell Hubbard and Hall. With the Big 12 lead on the line, both in the standings and rushing, don't expect Hubbard and Hall to be spelled much

Pokes Prediction 

#17-Iowa State (+3.5)  24

@#6-Oklahoma State  35

2:30 p.m. on FOX

Oklahoma State at home with a stingy defense in a game that I believe will come down to who runs the ball the best and who stops the run the best. The game could be closer in score, but I believe Oklahoma State puts a score up late that makes the game look more impressive than it was. I believe this one is a nailbiter right up to that point. 

Big 12 Predictions

Season: Record vs. Spread - 11-11 Record Straight Up - 14-8

Last Week: Record vs. Spread - 0-1 Record Straight Up - 1-0

This Week - Oct. 24, 2020

Oklahoma    34

@TCU (+6.5)  24

11 a.m. on ABC-TV - Both teams were off last week. TCU has more problems to fix than Oklahoma.

Kansas (+20)   10

@#20-Kansas State  36

11 a.m. on FS1 - Now Kansas doesn't have Pooka Williams, Les Miles is back and this is a great game for new K-State starting QB Will Howard to get more comfortable.

Baylor   19

@Texas (-9.5)  28

2:30 p.m. on ESPN - So many things broken at Texas and Baylor both. Texas wins on talent and lack of rust. 

West Virginia (-3)  31

@Texas Tech   27  

4:30 on ESPN2 - West Virginia is rounding into  pretty good football team and defense travels, the Mountaineers have one. 

Last Week - Oct. 17, 2020

Kansas (+23) 13

@West Virginia 38

Actual Score: 38-17 West Virginia