REALIGNMENT: After Texas State Joins, What's Next for the Pac-12?

This morning, multiple outlets reported that Texas State has received a bid to join the Pac-12, and will accept on Monday, becoming the league's 8th full member. What happens next for the Pac-12?

Jan 3, 2025; Dallas, TX, USA; Texas State Bobcats running back Lincoln Pare (7) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the North Texas Mean Green during the third quarter at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

First reported by the Austin Sports Journal this morning, the Pac-12's long, fraught realignment nightmare is almost over: this morning the league offered a bid to Sun Belt member Texas State. On Monday, the Bobcats' Board of Regents will rubber stamp an agreement to become the Pac-12's eighth full member.

When the ink dries, the Pac-12 will have its coveted eighth full member, a requirement for postseason football at the FBS level. They will also have several unanswered questions, which we will expand upon here.

Does Texas State impact the Pac-12/Mountain West settlement talks?

Yes, by giving the Pac-12 leverage. The conference needed an 8th full member before the fall, so that broadcast networks would have time to present their packages to national advertisers. With that mission accomplished, the league can focus all of its energy on negotiating the best possible settlement with the Mountain West.

The Mountain West, in contrast, will feel pressure: Mountain West banner-carrier UNLV is due to receive 10 to 14 million dollars from the Mountain West this year, plus a 24.5% cut of the departing schools’ exit fees. If the Mountain West was flush was cash, five of its most competitive schools wouldn’t be leaving for greener pastures. They need those schools' exit fees and they need them now.

When (or if) the lawsuits are settled, an even greater battle looms over the horizon: Mountain West media rights. The league’s previous partner Paramount (parent company of CBS and CBS Sports) recently became the Pac-12’s anchor, inking a substantial multi-sport broadcast agreement through March 2031. Who will pick up Mountain West football? Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould boxed out their regional rival from its primary partner, and now looks poised to score in transition: the Paramount deal leaves room open for the conference to piecemeal deals with ESPN, Fox, and The CW, a scenario that could leave the Mountain West without a suitor.

What about the rest of the Pac-12's media rights?

As mentioned above, the Pac-12’s deal with Paramount was strategic, but not all-encompassing: CBS and Paramount+ will air a minimum of 3 football and men’s basketball games apiece, plus the conference title games, while CBS Sports receives a (still to-be-announced) weekly package. Essentially, the conference lets the network cut the turkey and call first dibs, but they still have to share the rest of the meal with other networks.

One portion could be taken by The CW. To the surprise of many, ratings for Oregon State and Washington State football games on The CW last fall outpaced all other sporting events on the network, including power conference ACC games. Now the conference adds two bigger brands: college football playoff quarterfinalist Boise State, and perennial men’s basketball net-cutters Gonzaga. America's newest college sports broadcaster might be compelled to go all-in on the Pac-12.

At least one other network took notice of The CW’s ratings: ESPN. The Mothership committed to pick up 2 Oregon State football games this Fall: Saturday August 30th’s home opener vs Cal, and Friday September 26th’s matchup vs Houston will both air on ESPN. They’ve also snapped up Washington State’s Saturday September 13th game at North Texas, which will air on ESPNU. In addition, last winter ESPN+ streamed the bulk of all non-televised Oregon State & Washington State basketball games. A cross-platform partnership with the Worldwide Leader could span year-round, covering basketball, baseball, softball, and potentially more.

Will the Pac-12 add any more members?

According to John Canzano, expect Texas State to receive a partial share of the league’s broadcast revenue. If that’s true, the Pac-12 retains the fiscal flexibility to add other members. If the lawsuit with the Mountain West resolves in the Pac-12’s favor, hypothetically they could use part of the saved Mountain West exit fees to buy out Memphis from the AAC; the one-two punch of the Memphis broadcast market and the school’s rabid fanbase makes the Tigers a coveted expansion target.

Without the money to lure Memphis, the league could offer half-shares to non-football schools like St Mary’s, arguably the strongest remaining member of the West Coast Conference and a foothold in the Bay Area, or Dallas Baptist, a perennial baseball contender that could hold weight with Oregon State and double as a travel partner for Texas State.