Crystal Ball: 5 Potential Replacements for Oregon State HC Trent Bray

After Oregon State’s latest loss moved the Beavers to 0-6, we’re looking ahead at potential coaching hires, in case Trent Bray’s tenure in Corvallis comes to an end.

Bronco Mendenhall

Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes’ past two coaching hires - Jonathan Smith and Trent Bray - shared something in common: they are proud Oregon State alumni. If Barnes dips into that well again, few coaches can match the resume of Oregon State alum (1986-87) Bronco Mendenhall.

As a head coach at BYU from 2005-15, Mendenhall led the Cougars to back-to-back Mountain West Conference championships in 2006 & 2007, bowl appearances in all eleven of his seasons, and a 99-43 record. Eager for a new challenge, Mendenhall accepted the open head coaching position at Virginia following the 2015 season, and his career took a turn.

Mendenhall struggled at Virginia, going 36-38 in six seasons. He resigned in 2021, went on a sabbatical, and then took New Mexico’s head coaching job ahead of the 2024 season. In Albuquerque, Mendenhall went 5-7. A year later, he packed his bags for Utah State. While few candidates can match Mendenhall’s resume - or his personal ties to Oregon State - he might not want to leave for a third school in three seasons.

Matt Wells

Career breaks in coaching, much like any other profession, often come down to connections. In this case, Kansas State offensive coordinator Matt Wells makes this list due to his connection with Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes.

While many Beaver fans are aware of Barnes’ ties to (trigger warning) Gary Andersen, fewer possibly know that Andersen was only Barnes’ first hire at Utah State. His second hire was Matt Wells. When Andersen left the Beehive State to succeed Bret Bielema at Wisconsin, Barnes gave Andersen's offensive coordinator, Wells, his first college head coaching gig.

Under Wells, the Aggies won 9 games in 2013, 10 games in 2014, and then reached the 10 game mark again in 2018. Overall, he went 44-34 in 6 seasons, with two Mountain West Conference Coach of the Year awards. Following the 2018 season, Texas Tech hired Wells, but he struggled in Lubbock. Midway through his third season, Wells was fired; he went 13-17 at Tech, amidst frustrated boosters hungry to relive Mike Leach’s glory days.

Now, he’s the play caller at Kansas State. Through 6 games this season, the Wildcats rank 77th in total offense, averaging 5.88 yards per play and tallying 19 touchdowns. In contrast, Trent Bray’s Beavers rank 93rd in total offense, with an average of 5.15 yards per play and a total of 15 touchdowns.

Brennan Marion

If Barnes eschews past experience for future potential, as he did with Jonathan Smith’s hire in 2017, Marion makes sense. The 38 year old lacks college head coaching experience - he’s only coached three games at FCS Sacramento State - but the inventor of the Go Go Offense earned wunderkind status as Texas’ passing game coordinator under Steve Sarkisian in 2022, and UNLV’s offensive coordinator in 2023 & 2024.

Thanks to Marion’s inventive scheme, a perennial loser UNLV program won 19 games in two seasons, and reached the Mountain West Conference championship game last December. Following the 2023 season, Marion was named the Mountain West Wire Coordinator of the Year. Marion also has solid experience as a recruiter: at Texas, he helped pitch a California four-star quarterback named Maalik Murphy, now Oregon State's starting passer, who coincidentally has a year of eligibility remaining after this season.

Like Mendenhall, poor timing might sway Marion from pursuing Oregon State - Sacramento State just hired him last December - but the perplexing bombast of Sacramento State president Luke Wood, and the Hornets subsequent failure to to earn D1 FBS status, might influence Marion to ponder his future in Sacramento.

Blue Adams

Like Marion, Blue Adams is a rising star. Like Jonathan Smith and Trent Bray, the 45 year old coach has ties to Oregon State: he was Jonathan Smith’s secondary coach from 2019-23. That might be enough for Oregon State to consider Adams, Smith’s current secondary coach at Michigan State, in their head coaching search.

The well-traveled NFL veteran has exclusively coached defensive backs since joining Northern Iowa’s staff in 2011, but he was also one of Smith’s lead recruiters in Corvallis. Borrowing a football adage, it’s not the X’s and O’s, it’s the Jimmy’s and Joe’s, and Adams has experience convincing power-conference caliber student-athletes to don the Beavers orange & black.

Joseph Smith

The last name on this list might appear out of left field, but the hypothetical hire of Linfield (NCAA Division III) head coach Joseph Smith would follow a proven formula at Oregon State.

For decades, the Beavers have found success hiring experienced coaches from Oregon’s smaller colleges. Before leading the Oregon State women’s basketball program to unprecedented success, Scott Rueck won a Division III national championship at George Fox (2009), where he coached 14 seasons (1996-2010). Before building Oregon State’s baseball program into a three-time national champion juggernaut, legendary coach Pat Casey came from - you guessed it - then NAIA George Fox.

At Linfield, whose McMinnville campus is only an hour’s drive north of Corvallis, Smith has a daunting 168-32 record since 2006. With a recruiting footprint that resides in the Pacific Northwest, Smith’s Wildcats have reached the Division III playoffs thirteen times, with three semifinal appearances. They’ve also won thirteen conference championships.

Unfortunately for Oregon State, he might not want to leave his alma mater: In a profile piece published in The Oregonian in 2015, Smith shared thoughts on his predecessor leaving for an assistant job at Oregon State, telling the paper that “He was a Beaver. It's different for me. I played here. There's really not a place I dreamed of coaching at”.

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