Crystal Ball: The Five Likeliest Oregon State Head Coaching Candidates

Last month, we looked at potential head coaching replacements for since-fired Oregon State head coach Trent Bray.

Now, this piece addresses hiring rumors across the Oregon State reporting beat, and tries to answer an important question: who are the five likeliest head coaching candidates for Oregon State?

Ed Orgeron

In mid-October, On3 reported that an anonymous source expressed Coach O’s interest in the Oregon State job. Around two weeks later, Matt Moscona of ESPN Baton Rouge told Portland morning sports-talk show Dirt & Sprague that the rumor was real: “He wants that job; he would take that job if it were offered”.

The former national champion head coach has an unparalleled resume on the recruiting trail. At Miami in the early nineties, he worked closely with the late great Pro Football Hall of Famer Cortez Kennedy and fellow Canton-enshrinee Warren Sapp. At USC a decade later, Orgeron helped Pete Carroll build a dynasty. Before everything fell apart at LSU, Orgeron recruited a juggernaut: transfer quarterback Joe Burrow and superstar pass-catchers Ja’Marr Chase & Justin Jefferson combined to lead arguably the greatest offense in college football history.

I fear Orgeron is too good of a recruiter to settle for Oregon State. He’s good enough to coach at a power conference school, and I think he will prioritize any power conference job offers. That said, there are two solid reasons why Oregon State might genuinely appeal to Orgeron. First, Oregon State could offer him something he’s never had in his career: power. Unlike LSU, the Beavers have no high-priced recruits to coddle, or mega-rich donors to schmooze. Within the confines of the budget, Orgeron would have absolute control over every football decision at Oregon State, allowing him to pursue his visions to the fullest extent. Second, Oregon State could offer him something else he’s never had in his career: patience. Beaver Nation won’t accept mediocrity, but they’d likely accept a perennial 7 wins plus a bowl game. At many of Orgeron’s former employers, that would potentially get him fired.

Paul Chryst

Last week, On3 national college football insider Pete Nakos name-dropped former Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst as a target for Oregon State.

Chryst hasn't coached since a sabbatical at Texas in 2023, but that report makes sense for one glaring reason: connection. Before climbing up the coaching staff at his alma mater Wisconsin, Chryst worked closely with former Oregon State head coach Mike Riley.

From 1991-92, Chryst served on Riley’s staff with the now-defunct World League’s San Antonio Riders. In 1997, he joined his mentor at Oregon State, and followed him to the NFL’s San Diego Chargers in 1999. Their long tenure together continued in 2003: when Riley came back to Corvallis that year, so did Chryst. After Wisconsin hired the then-Oregon State offensive coordinator in the mid aughts, his coaching career took off. Coincidentally, Riley is on the search committee that Oregon State announced last month.

Andy Avalos

If those earlier reports are accurate - including the suggestion that Oregon State covets an experienced head coach like Ed Orgeron or Paul Chryst - I think another former head coach must be considered: Andy Avalos. Orgeron is 64 years old, and Chryst is 59; Avalos is still only 44, a relative up-and-comer. What’s more, TCU’s current defensive coordinator offers one clear advantage: he knows the Pac-12. As an Orange County native, Boise State alum, and longtime assistant coach on the smurf turf before running Mario Cristobal’s defense at Oregon (2019-20), Avalos has extensive coaching experience in the conference’s footprint. At Oregon, Avalos’ aggressive 3-3-5 scheme transformed the Ducks into one of the nation’s top defenses, and he played an important role in the commitment of #2 national overall recruit Kayvon Thibodeaux.

From there, Boise State made Avalos’ dreams come true. Ten games into his third season at his alma mater, those dreams became nightmares. He received a pink slip after a 5-5 record in 2023, despite winning records the previous two seasons (7-5 and 10-4). One month after his dismissal, interim head coach Spencer Danielson led the team Avalos built to the Mountain West Conference championship.

Frankly, I think Boise State gave their prodigal son a raw deal. For Avalos, Oregon State would provide the opportunity to restore his reputation as one of the game’s brightest young minds.

Brennan Marion

Avalos isn’t the only bright young mind on the Beavers’ radar. I’ve previously written about Marion’s potential in Corvallis, and I’m not alone on the beat.

After lifting perennial-loser UNLV into contention with his inventive Go Go Offense, Marion accepted the head coaching position at FCS Sacramento State last winter. At the time, the move seemed shrewd: the Hornets were talking about a new football stadium, and an application to join the Football Bowl Subdivision. One naive reporter even dared to dream further, floating Sac State as a potential new member for the Pac-12 Conference. Equipped with all of that momentum, Marion hauled in one of the most impressive recruiting classes in all of FCS.

Since then, the Hornets’ buzz has fizzled. Their application to FBS was denied in late June. A week earlier, the school announced it would leave the Big Sky for the Big West. That move is a concerning one: not only does the Big West not sponsor football - potentially leaving Sacramento State without a conference - but the Big West’s future is in serious doubt after the 2025 academic calendar, with planned departures of UC San Diego (to the West Coast Conference) and UC Davis & Hawai’i at Manoa (to the Mountain West).

Say what you will about Brennan Marion’s current employer, but he’s still a promising young coach. If he wants to coach at the FBS level, something that I believe drew him to Sacramento State last winter, then he would likely listen to offers from Oregon State.

Jonathan Smith

I know that many of you feel bitterly about the Beavers’ former coach. For two years, social media has platformed fans of the orange & black lobbing every slur imaginable at their one-time program savior.

Personally, I give Smith credit for what he accomplished at ol’ O-S-U: his arrival healed the trauma of Mike Riley’s stunning departure, and his success smoothed over the sheer ineptitude of Gary Andersen’s tenure. In his time at the Valley Football Center, he built up a mountain of goodwill.

Unfortunately, when he left for Michigan State in late November 2023, that mountain collapsed. So far it's looked like the wrong move: the 46 year old former Fiesta Bowl winning quarterback is on the hot seat. A return to Corvallis - where he gradually built the Beavers into a 10 win team in 2023 (and a top 25 finisher in the final polls) - could be just what Smith, and this fanbase need.

First, Michigan State will need to cut his contract loose: when they hired Smith, Sparty was still on the hook for previous coach Mel Tucker’s $79 million owed, and theywould owe Smith nearly $32 million if they fire him before February 2026. Still, in the modern college football landscape, anything can happen. If Smith returns to the Valley Football Center next year, gently apologizing in front of the cameras, I won’t be surprised.

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